May 14:
Israel is keeping the Kremlin at arm’s-length over its conduct in Ukraine. Ha’aretz reports that the Israeli government has refused a request from Moscow last month to allow a missile boat to anchor in the port city of Haifa. The move, officials in Jerusalem say, is an official effort to preserve the appearance of neutrality in the unfolding Ukraine crisis.
Amid growing tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin is focusing on self-sufficiency in the country’s defense industry. “We need to do our utmost for anything used in our defense sector to be produced on our territory, so that we would not be dependent on anyone,” Radio Free Europereports Putin telling a meeting of defense officials in Sochi. The Russian focus is understandable; the U.S. has threatened to target Russian high-tech imports as part of its attempts to penalize Moscow for its policies in Ukraine.
May 15:
Moscow is adopting a measured approach toward the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine, the Financial Times reports. According to the paper, fears in Ukraine and neighboring countries that Russia might preempt the May 25th vote with an all-out invasion are receding, as Russia's military brass adopts a more cautious stance toward continued intervention. “There is no support in the military leadership for going in with troops,” it cites a former Russian defense ministry official as saying. “It would be very difficult not just in terms of securing Ukraine itself but also put our overall defense at risk.” Rather, observers say, Moscow is likely to seek to parlay its current leverage (created by fanning separatist tendencies in places like Donetsk and Luhansk) into influence over the direction of the vote.
Russia’s trade ties to Iran, long constrained by economic pressure on the Islamic Republic, are poised to grow. With significant sanctions relief in the offing as a result of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, Moscow and Tehran are now eyeing an expanded trade relationship. According to Russian energy minister Alexander Novak, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, have called for the creation of new “mechanisms” to facilitate bilateral trade. “Through formulation and implementation of such mechanisms, the ground for export of commodities and services from Russia to Iran and vice versa will be prepared, and such exchanges would be in the areas of energy, electricity, oil and gas exploitation, technical and engineering equipment, road construction, food industry and many more,” Iran’s PressTV cites Novak as saying.
May 16:
In the wake of tandem referendums in two pro-Russian regions of Ukraine, Moscow’s pledges of noninterference cannot be trusted, a top European security official has said. “Guarantees given by Russia about sovereignty and integrity” cannot be trusted, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters in Bucharestin comments carried by Bloomberg. “We want Russia to respect its international obligations and stop trying to destabilize the situation.”
The European effort to pressure Russia economically could face an unexpected obstacle: fellow EU member Germany. According to Reuters, German industry is “ramping up” efforts to convince German Chancellor Angela Merkel to defer the application of new, more biting sanctions against the Kremlin. The news agency reports that a confidential report was sent to the government from the country’s chamber on foreign trade warning of “massive impact” on German businesses operating in Russia if penalties are levied against the Russian government following Ukraine’s upcoming presidential election. “Deeper economic sanctions would lead to a situation where contracts would increasingly be given to domestic firms, projects would be suspended or delayed by the Russian side, and Russian industry and politicians would turn to Asia, in particular China,” the paper states.
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