Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1908

June 20:

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has announced a unilateral, seven-day cease-fire in Eastern Ukraine,Radio Free Europe reports. Leaders from United States, France, and Germany have lauded the move and called on Russia to persuade pro-Russia separatists operating on Ukrainian soil to follow suit. President Poroshenko has qualified his order, however, warning that despite the ceasefire, retaliatory combat action could be taken “if rebels attack our forces.”

June 22:

Are Russia’s demographic prospects improving? The Moscow Times reports that fertility, life expectancy and birth rates have all inched upward over the past year in the Russian Federation, causing Kremlin officials to strike a triumphant tone. "We have reached a qualitatively new level of many living standards, for example average income,” Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in late May. “These demographic and social development changes were achieved in a very short period, while for many other countries it took decades.” But at least one major school of thought among demographers suggests that the trend is not sustainable - and that Russia’s negative demographic outlook is poised to return with a vengeance. "In 2019 there will only be 12.9 million women of the most active maternity age of between 20 to 35, while in 2013 there were 17.2 million, so of course there will be fewer children in the future," Anatoly Vishnevsky of the School of Economics’ Demography Institute, tells the Times.

[EDITORS’ NOTE: The cautious note struck by Vishnevsky is supported by the statistics, which indicate that - despite marginal improvement in recent months - fertility rates in Russia remain significantly below the 2.1 “replenishment rate” needed for a stable population, and that negative social trends (from drug abuse to alcoholism to a high rate of abortion) continue to erode Russia’s potential population base.]

President Putin is calling for a compromise in Eastern Ukraine that would guarantee the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the region. According to the Associated Press, Putin has told reporters that the recently announced ceasefire is an “important part of a final settlement,” but that a compromise between the involved parties will be the only long-term solution. His comments come as Russia is conducting large-scale military exercises and increasing its military buildup along the Ukrainian border.

Western leaders are responding in kind. Vice President Joe Biden has threatened Russia with further sanctions if it does not “stop the flow of arms and militants across the border and use its influence to publicly call on the separatists to lay down their arms.”

June 24:

In a long-awaited yet “largely symbolic” move, President Putin has asked Russian lawmakers to rescind his authority to use force in Eastern Ukraine. The action is widely regarded as a shield against further sanctions from the West, the Chicago Tribune hopes. Nonetheless, it has fanned hopes among many that the move will lead “toward de-escalation and toward a more peaceful backdrop” - an image that Russian officials are actively attempting to cultivate. “There isn't any further need for extraordinary measures and Russia is genuine in its wish to lower tensions,” Andrei Klimov, the deputy head of the foreign affairs committee of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper chamber of parliament, has said.

The Russian military is working to divest itself of Ukrainian hardware. IHS Janes reports that the Russian Defense Ministry has said that it plans to substitute some 95 percent of Ukrainian imports with goods and products from other suppliers in the very near future. The plan, articulated by Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov, involves carrying out “import substitution” for defense-related materiel within two to five years.

June 26:

The rate of HIV infection in Russia is expanding rapidly, The Moscow Times reports. The paper, citing Russia’s Federal Drug Control Service, reports that HIV infection continues to spread rapidly, with almost 78,000 new cases recorded in 2013 (up from 69,000 in 2012 and 62,000 in 2011). HIV-positive Russians are now estimated to make up 0.4 percent of the country’s population. Nevertheless, Russian authorities insist that they are slowly making progress in the fight against drug abuse and addiction - a principal conduit for the spread of the HIV virus in Russia. Figures for current drug addiction rates have not been forthcoming, however.