Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1915

Related Categories: Russia; Ukraine

July 24:

Even as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity reaches an all-time high, more and more of his citizens appear to be eyeing the exits from the Motherland. Reuters reports that five times as many Russians are emigrating today than were during Putin’s first two terms as president. The recent exodus has been dubbed a brain drain, because as a result Russia is “losing the most educated, most active, most entrepreneurial people.” Others have argued that the trend simply reflects “people are looking for a better quality of life: from medicine for older people, education for children, legal and economic guarantees for businessman [sic]” - something not being provided by Putin’s state.

The Moscow Times reports that Russian opposition leaders Sergei Udaltsov and Leonid Razvozhayev have been found guilty on Thursday of organizing mass riots against Vladimir Putin and plotting wider political unrest, charges both men deny. Each is expected to receive an eight-year sentence for his participation in the violent Bolotnaya protests that took place in Moscow on May 6, 2012.

Russia is strengthening its control over Internet usage within its borders. The country’s Interior Ministry is offering $111,290 to anyone who can enable police officers to identify users operating TOR, a program that allows individuals to surf and post on the Internet anonymously. Russia Today reports that the number of TOR users in Russia has spiked from just 80,000 in May to nearly 200,000 this month. “Law enforcers are worried about the ability of Internet users to anonymously visit the Internet, and particularly blocked sites,” one lawyer has explained.

July 25:

With his policy in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is stoking volatile nationalist fervor that he may not be able to control, America’s top general has warned. The Agence France Presse reports Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey telling the Aspen Security Conference that, by promoting an “aggressive” foreign policy agenda that has impinged on the sovereignty of neighboring states, the Russian president “may actually light a fire that he loses control of.” "There's a rising tide of nationalism in Europe right now that's been created in many ways by these Russian activities that I find to be quite dangerous," Dempsey said.

The State Department has accused Russian forces of firing artillery across the country’s common border with Ukraine. Reuters reports State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf as saying that there is also evidence that Russia intends to reinforce pro-Russian separatists operating in eastern and southern Ukraine with “heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers” and other advanced weaponry. The Russian government, however, has denied direct involvement in the conflict now taking place in Ukraine, with the Defense Ministry declaring the charges to be "an attempt to mislead the public" on the part of the U.S. government.

July 27:

More and more, people living east of the Ural Mountains think of themselves not as Russians, but as Siberians. Citing new analysis by Siberian activists, Russian nationalities expert Paul Goble writes on his Window on Eurasia blog that “[r]esidents of the Russian Federation are increasingly identifying not as Russians but as Siberians not only because they feel themselves different than ethnic Russians in terms of mentality but also because Moscow treats them like a colony and because they have closer ties to China and the Pacific Rim countries than to European Russia.” Indeed, according to Goble, “25 to 30 percent of the population there would welcome complete independence, 60 to 70 percent want greater autonomy from Moscow and “only about 10 percent are satisfied” with the current federation arrangements.”

The trend, Goble notes, is a sign of popular perceptions of Moscow’s imperial overstretch. “But when the Moscow government is stronger, it has suppressed such groups and aspirations, something that was typical of the first two terms of Vladimir Putin’s administration. But now, Siberian regionalism is making a comeback, an indication some in the region think Moscow is overextended and will weaken, allowing it to re-emerge from the shadows.”