November 18:
Russia's economic prospects continue to dim. The Moscow Times reports that one of the EU's most prominent financial institutions, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), is now projecting that the Russian Federation will fall into recession next year as a result of Western economic pressure. "The sanctions are having a very real impact” on Russia's economy, the EBRD's chief economist, Erik Berglof, has said. According to him, recession in Russia "is even more likely now."
Compounding the problem for Moscow, notes Berglof, is a drop in the world price of oil. That trend, which has been building over the past half-year, "reinforces the secular slowdown in growth" for Russia's heavily energy export-driven economy.
November 19:
Russia's economic outlook is far more dire than it appears, a prominent economic analyst has declared.Writing in the Business Insider, Ed Yardeni notes that "Russia's non-gold international reserves have dropped from $457 billion at the start of this year to $383 during October" while the ruble "has plunged 30% since the start of the year." Meanwhile, the dropping price of world oil could lead to a "debt default crisis" in the Russian Federation, Yardeni notes. "In other words, catastrophic outcomes are still possible for Russia."
November 20:
The Kremlin is warning Washington against changing its policy toward Ukraine. Ahead of a planned visit of Vice President Joe Biden to Kyiv, during which the issue of U.S. arms supplies - long sought-after by the Poroshenko government - is expected to top the agenda, Russian officials have declared that any such step would constitute a "serious destabilizing factor" as well as a "direct violation of agreements reached." As such, it would be a "very serious signal" from Washington to Moscow, Reuters reports Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich as saying.
Pakistan's Dawn reports that Moscow and Islamabad have signed a new, "milestone" military cooperation agreement. The deal, inked during Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's high profile visit to the Pakistani capital, the first ever by a Russian defense chief, is seen as a bid by Moscow for greater relevance in South Asia with the impending departure of the Coalition from Afghanistan. "Apart from promoting bilateral defence relations, the visit will enable both countries to join hands in bringing peace and stability in the region," a formal statement issued following Shoigu's meeting with his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, laid out.
November 21:
Vladimir Putin is heading back to the Middle East. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Bogdanov has announced that plans are underway for Russia's president to visit Egypt early next year, further cementing the warming ties between Cairo and Moscow.
The focus on Egypt is logical for Moscow; "Russia is looking for new allies in the region, given the situation in Syria and the imminent solution to Iran's nuclear problem," Mustafa El-Labbad, director of the Al-Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies, explains to Cairo's Al Ahram Weekly. It also makes sound strategic sense for Egypt. Since Mohammed Morsi's ouster from the country’s presidency last year, the Egyptian government has seen itself frozen out of a substantial portion of its longstanding aid from the United States, prompting a search for new allies on the part of Egyptian president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.
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