Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1942

Related Categories: Russia; Ukraine

November 22:

The latest indications of Russia's deepening economic malaise are widespread commodity shortages and spikes in the prices of consumer staples. For instance, "[i]n just two weeks the national average price of buckwheat increased by 27.5%," reports Novaya Gazeta, citing official data propagated by ROSSTAT, Russia's state statistics agency. The rapid rise in the cost of kasha, a Russian national staple, could be a "reflection of popular views of an impending crisis," as the Russian people brace for protracted economic instability as a result of their government's ongoing tensions with the West over Ukraine, according to the paper.

The Diplomat reports that Russia and China have mapped out an active agenda of military exercises in the coming year as part of their burgeoning strategic relationship. "We plan to conduct a regular joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean next spring," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently said, adding that "another joint naval drill is planned in the Pacific." Shoigu's comments were made during a high profile Asian tour, as part of which the Russian defense chief visited both Pakistan and China - a trip that reflects stepped-up diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific by the Kremlin.

November 23:

The United States and other Western powers are seeking to foment "regime change" in Russia, the country's foreign minister has charged. "The West is showing unambiguously that they do not want to force [us] to change policy, they want to achieve a change of regime," Australia’s ABC News cites Lavrov as telling a political conference in Moscow. As proof, Lavrov pointed to the fact that "public figures in Western countries are saying that it's necessary to introduce sanctions that would destroy the economy and rouse public protests."

November 24:

Amid domestic unrest and political uncertainty, Russian society is militarizing. Russia expert Paul Goble, writing in his Window on Eurasia blog, notes the recent trend in favor of personal gun ownership among Russians. The reason, says Goble, is that Russians are increasingly convinced "that police are not willing or able to defend them and [believe] that they must therefore be in a position to defend themselves." He cites Russian political scientist Yaroslav Blouson as suggesting that Russian citizens "are beginning to see in the state structures not guarantors of sovereignty competitors of the criminal groups who play by rules dictated by the shadow milieu" - forcing Russians to fend for themselves.

November 25:

Lithuania's support of Ukraine's embattled government is coming at a high cost for the Baltic state. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite recently pledged to provide military aid to Kyiv in order to bolster its fight against pro-Russia separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk - prompting Moscow to retaliate by blocking car and truck transit into the Russian Federation. According to Reuters, the Grybauskaite government has "accused Moscow... of blocking its vehicles and goods at the Russian border, and summoned its ambassador to protest."

Could Russia soon exit a critical European institution? The Moscow Times reports Vladimir Dzhabarov, chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, as saying that Russia's membership in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) - a significant EU human rights body - should be reexamined if the organization acts to punish Russia again for its conduct in Ukraine. PACE recently suspended the rights of the Russian delegation to the organization, stripping Moscow of its ability to send election observer missions or sit in on the deliberations of the group's main bodies.