Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1945

Related Categories: Russia; Ukraine

December 4:

A coordinated assault by Islamic militants in Grozny has left at least 20 dead and scores more wounded, theNew York Times reports. The attack - the third of its kind this year - involved an hours-long firefight between militants and Russian security forces on the streets of the Chechen regional capital. The violence erupted just hours before Russian president Vladimir Putin's annual State of the Nation address in Moscow.

[EDITORS' NOTE: The Caucasus Emirate, Russia's most prominent Islamic militant faction, has claimed responsibility for the attack. But at least some believe that a different culprit could also be involved. The Islamic State terrorist group warned this Fall that it would soon make its mark on Russia and the Caucasus, and a number of Russian analysts have speculated that it was tied to the the Grozny attack in some fashion.]

Russia's worsening economic fortunes are hitting the world’s oldest profession, The Moscow Times reports. According to the paper, prostitutes in Russia have raised their rates in response to the declining value of the ruble.

Writing in his Window on Eurasia blog and citing Russian Muslim leaders, Paul Goble notes that "[s]ince Vladimir Putin became president, the Muslims of Russia have erected 7,500 mosques or slightly more one per day." That figure - buoyed by comparatively robust birth rates among Russia's Muslims - "may disturb some of Putin's supporters who believe that he is committed to making Russia more Russian," Goble says.

Moscow is moving ahead with the newest part of its strategic partnership with Iran. The Moscow Times reportsthat Russia "could begin shipping materials to Iran this year" under an oil-for-commodities arrangement hammered out between Tehran and Moscow earlier in 2014. The arrangement is likely to further rile relations with Washington, which is currently seeking Moscow's help to bring Iran’s nuclear program to heel. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki has said that the White House "would act if it thought the barter deal violated international sanctions on Iran."

Vladimir Putin has struck a defiant note in his most recent State of the Nation address. In the speech,excerpts of which were carried by the New York Times, the Russian president sought to paint a comparatively rosy picture of his country's economic and political situation, painting worsening relations with the West as merely a function of U.S. and European fears. "The policy of containment was not invented yesterday," Putin said. "It has been carried out against our country for many years, always, for decades, if not centuries. In short, whenever someone thinks that Russia has become too strong or independent, these tools are quickly put into use."

Putin's speech, coming on the heels of a major terrorist attack in Grozny, Chechnya and amid worsening economic conditions, has led critics to label him as dangerously out of touch. "He thinks that overall the situation is under control — the problems with the foreign currency reserves, oil, the budget, the ruble, the economy, inflation and so on — but the situation is not under control," the Times cites Vladimir Ryzhkov, an opposition politician, as saying. "The country needs surgery, and he proposed therapy."