December 16:
Russia's beleaguered political opposition is organizing, it seems. The Daily Beast reports that a number of Russian opposition figures who have left the Russian Federation are beginning to coordinate with exiles in the Baltic States and Ukraine in hopes that there is political strength in numbers. The goal is greater political connectivity, "so that by the next Russian presidential election in 2018 or, if something unexpected happens, sooner, the opposition has civil support, a strategy, and, most importantly, has people ready to present an alternative to Putin's system," one activist interviewed by the news website has explained.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: One of those people appears to be none other than former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky.As a recent New Yorker feature details, the ousted oligarch - now in exile in Europe after his release from a labor camp late last year - is contemplating a political comeback even as he attempts to organize Russian opposition elements, both inside and outside of Russia, to present a consolidated challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin.]
Western sanctions and plummeting world oil prices are taking a bite out of Russia's national currency. The New York Times reports that Russia's ruble is continuing to depreciate in value, despite drastic measures taken recently by Russia's Central Bank in an attempt to shore up its solvency. That includes a "middle of the night" hike in interest rates, which failed to arrest the ruble's slide. As a result, Russian observers are waxing increasingly pessimistic. "We are seeing an economic crisis," Natalia Akindinova of the Moscow Higher School of Economics has told the paper. "We are seeing a sharp devaluation of the ruble at a time when the central bank doesn't have the reserves to influence the market, as it did in the past crises."
December 17:
Is Russia planning to deploy nuclear weapons in its newest holding? The Washington Free Beacon reports that officials in Washington are expressing growing worries that the Kremlin could emplace nukes in the recently-annexed Crimean Peninsula. Such a move, according to Victoria Nuland, the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, would be "extremely dangerous." So far, however, U.S. and European officials have declined to spell out what the Western response might be. For its part, Moscow is inclined to make precisely such a move. In a recent interview, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that "Russia has every reason to dispose of its nuclear arsenal" by deploying it in Crimea.
December 19:
Russia is doubling down on the modernization of its strategic arsenal. At a recent meeting of Russia's Defense Ministry Board, the transcript of which was posted on the official website of President Vladimir Putin, Russia's chief executive emphasized that the country "must develop all components of our strategic nuclear forces, which play a very important part in maintaining global balance and essentially rule out the possibility of a large-scale attack against Russia." This focus, according to Putin, includes the addition of more than 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles to the country's Strategic Rocket Forces in 2015, as well as future plans to "modernise the entire fleet of Tu-160 and Tu-95ms bombers, and also develop a new generation strategic bomber."
Russia is also prioritizing its militarization of the Arctic. At the same meeting, Putin emphasized that - on the heels of the establishment of a "unified strategic command" in the Arctic in 2014 - the coming year will see "the completion of military infrastructure on Novaya Zemlya, Kotelny and Wrangel islands, and Cape Schmidt."
December 20:
Migrant workers in Russia are sensing trouble in the air, and voting with their feet. In his Window on Eurasia blog, Russia expert Paul Goble details that the country's migrant laborers - taking note of new geopolitical conditions and restrictive measures imposed by the Kremlin, among them "the collapse of the ruble" and a soon-to-be-mandatory "test of Russian language knowledge" - are leaving the Russian Federation in droves. In all, Russian experts estimate that a quarter or more of the 10 million-plus immigrant laborers now resident in Russia have plans to return to their countries of origin in the near future. The move, Goble notes, represents a short-term gain for Russia's nationalists, but a long-term loss for the country as a whole. "While some Russians may be glad to see them go, their departure will make it more difficult for the Russian economy to escape the looming recession."
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