Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1952

January 7:

A quintet of Russian experts are raising the alarm over the deteriorating situation in the North Caucasus. In an online roundtable hosted by the website Kavkaz Uzel, Aleksandr Cherkasov of Memorial, a human rights watchdog, Varvara Pakhomenko of the International Crisis Group, Denis Sokolov of the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service, Tatyana Lokshina of Human Rights Watch, and Sergey Nikitin of Amnesty International all concurred that the region - which had stabilized briefly last year - is mpw again in turmoil. The causes, the experts noted, were the rising ideological clout of the Islamic State terrorist group, as well as the return of Islamic fighters from the Syrian battlefield. This development, they note, is beginning to reverse the trendline of the past several years, which saw declining incidents of violence and a lessening of casualties as a result of terrorist incidents - statistics attributable at least in part to the draconian measures employed by Russian security services.

January 9:

Moscow is readying to play peacemaker in the long-running Syrian civil war. London's Al-Sharq al-Awsatnewspaper cites a senior Russian diplomat as saying that at least 30 opposition figures from various groups fighting against the Assad regime have been invited to a late-January parlay in Moscow. The same source also laid out Russia's formal position in the conflict: that the talks "will be based on the Geneva Communique which calls for the establishment of a transitional governing body with full executive powers."

The Kremlin is increasingly concerned with the sexual proclivities of Russian drivers. According to the BBC, a new law just passed by the Russian government effectively disqualifies transsexuals and transgender individuals from holding driving licenses. The measure, ostensibly aimed at promoting road safety in the Russian Federation, also affects individuals who engage in "pathological" lying or theft.

The move - part of an ongoing effort by the Russian government to promote traditional values - has prompted an outcry from observers and rights groups within the country. The Association of Russian Lawyers for Human Rights, for example, has called the new law "discriminatory." Others, like representatives of the Russian Psychiatric Association, have taken issue with the measure on the grounds that it stigmatizes disorders and might discourage individuals from seeking mental health assistance. But at least one organization is backing the Kremlin measure. "We have too many deaths on the road, and I believe toughening medical requirements for applicants is fully justified," says Professional Drivers Union head Alexander Kotov.

January 10:

The Russian government is cracking down further on illegal migration. In its latest effort to tighten procedures for visitation and employment in the Russian Federation, Itar-TASS reports that the Kremlin has adopted a new law imposing a decade-long ban on violators of visa procedures. Under the regulation, visitors and non-citizens who remain in Russia illegally for 180 days or more after the expiration of their visas will be denied entry back into the country for five years, while those who stay illegally longer than 280 days will be barred for a full 10 years.

January 11:

In yet another sign of Russia's declining economic fortunes, ratings agency Fitch has cut the country's credit grade to just one level above "junk" status. The move, Qatar's Peninsula newspaper reports, is based on the company's assessment that the "economic outlook has deteriorated significantly since mid-2014 following sharp falls in the oil price and the rouble, coupled with a steep rise in interest rates." It noted that "Western sanctions first imposed in March 2014 continue to weigh on the economy by blocking Russian banks' and corporates' [sic] access to external capital markets," and warned that "[g]rowth may not return until 2017."