January 20:
Russia and Iran continue to deepen their strategic ties. Tehran's FARS news agency reports that, as part of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's latest visit to Tehran, Moscow and Tehran have inked an agreement expanding their already-robust defense collaboration still further. Crucially, Shoigu's visit also appears to have settled an issue that has long rankled bilateral relations: Russia's decision several years ago to renege on a 2007 contract to deliver advanced air defense systems to the Islamic Republic. According to FARS, Shoigu and his Iranian counterpart, Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan, have "agreed to resolve the existing problems" that have prevented the delivery of the S-300 in recent years, paving the way for Iran's acquisition of the advanced defense system - which it seeks in order to defend its nuclear sites against possible attack - in the near future.
January 21:
In December, the Obama administration announced a new "opening" in its relations with Cuba, setting the stage for a normalization of ties between Washington and Havana. But Moscow is quietly continuing its own strategic cooperation with the Castro regime. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that, on the eve of talks between U.S. and Cuban diplomats, a Russian intelligence warship has docked in the Cuban capital. The visit of the Viktor Leonov CCB-175, a 200-man spy vessel, was not officially announced by Havana, and has been downplayed so far by U.S. officials.
Ongoing tensions with the West over Ukraine caused the Kremlin to shelve its long-planned South Stream natural gas pipeline project last Fall. Now, it appears, Moscow is eyeing Turkey as an energy substitute. The Moscow Times reports that Russian state energy conglomerate Gazprom is planning, in lieu of South Stream, to "transport the gas to a hub in Turkey." Dubbed "Turkish Stream," the new route is currently seen by officials in Moscow as Russia's only viable alternative energy scheme to bring natural gas to the borders of Europe.
The plan, however, is speculative, analysts say. According to observers like Sergei Pikin of Moscow's Energy Development Fund, it relies on Europe's ongoing need for Russian energy - something that is far from guaranteed. "Gazprom's negotiating position is weak. It is backed by nothing other than statements that Europe cannot do without Russian gas," Pikin points out. Yet "if pressed, within the next 10 years Europe can completely abandon unstable gas supplies from Russia." Another problem is present as well. After subtracting Turkey's own energy needs, the pipeline will not have "enough capacity to deliver these volumes from the Greek-Turkish border into the heart of Southeastern Europe in order to reach the consumers that Gazprom planned to reach with South Stream," according to Jack Sharples of the European University in St. Petersburg.
January 22:
NATO officials are warning that Russia is intensifying its involvement in Ukraine. Reuters, citing NATO SACEUR Philip Breedlove, reports that the Alliance "has detected signs of heightened Russian involvement in fighting in parts of eastern Ukraine." While Moscow continues to deny its involvement on the territory of its western neighbor, Breedlove has told reporters that "Russian-backed forces [in eastern Ukraine] have renewed capability... to bring pressure on the Ukrainian forces and have in several places moved the line of contact to the west." Additionally, according to the general, "We are beginning to see the (heat) signatures of air defense systems and electronic warfare systems that have accompanied past Russian troop movements into Ukraine."
January 23:
Deteriorating relations with the West, brought about by the Kremlin's policy toward Ukraine, contributed to massive capital flight from Russia last year. The country's Central Bank has estimated that over $150 billion left Russia in 2014, as jittery investors moved their money to more stable markets. That trend, it appears, is not over. Sputnik cites former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin as estimating that capital flight could reach $100 billion in 2015. In comments before the Davos Economic Forum, Kudrin estimated that "capital flight will also be around $90-$100 billion" in the coming year, something which represents "a huge strike against the Russian economy."
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