Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1971

April 3:

Is Russia preparing for a wider war in Europe? That's the contention of Andrei Illarionov, a former Kremlin economic advisor who has become one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's most prominent critics. Writing for opposition website kasparov.ru, he notes a recent, sharp rise in Russian military spending - a trendline that Illarionov believes could represent preparations for a broader offensive campaign in Europe than the one the Kremlin is currently conducting in Ukraine. From late 1999, when Putin came to power, until January 2014, he writes, Russia's national spending on military and defense has averaged between 2.5 and 3.2 percent of GDP. However, with the start of Russia's intervention in Ukraine in February 2014, the country's military spending soared - rising to more than 10 percent of GDP in the first quarter of last year. Those figures declined somewhat later in 2014 but are now rising again. According to Illarionov, the amount of money now being spent by Moscow rivals the initial mobilization that accompanied the start of hostilities in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia is preparing for escalation, either in Ukraine or beyond.

The United States and its European allies must move swiftly and resolutely to arm Ukraine to head off continued Russian aggression, one of America's most prominent former military officials has said. "Despite political and media commentary to the contrary, the fighting in Ukraine is not a civil war driven by Ukrainian separatists," writes former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (and presidential candidate) Wesley Clark inNewsweek. "It is a war directed, financed and supplied by the Kremlin that also exploits the discontent of some of the population of the Donbass."

While it can marshall a resolute response to Russia's aggression, notes Clark, "on balance, Ukraine's capabilities are woefully inadequate." What is needed, he contends, are "missing key capabilities" such as electronic countermeasures to overcome Russian jamming of military communications, anti-armor weapons capable of countering Russian T90 tanks, and effective night vision equipment, among other resources. In all, Ukraine needs assistance from the West in seven critical categories - without which it "will not be able to stop the aggression."

April 5:

The Kremlin is defending its governance of the Crimean Peninsula. According to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the region's Tatar minority - a traditional object of persecution by Russian authorities - are gaining greater rights than ever before. "A law has been enacted for the rehabilitation of all peoples living in Crimea," a step that "was not even under consideration while Crimea was still part of Ukraine," Lavrov boasted at a press conference in comments carried by The Moscow Times. "Crimean Tatars are represented in every agency of government in the republic of Crimea. They have the right to speak, to teach their children and to use all services in their own language." Lavrov's comments come on the heels of the closure by Russian authorities of the region's only television station run by Tatars.

April 6:

Russia is raising the bar for Central Asian migrants. Radio Free Europe reports that, as part of their efforts to make it more difficult for Central Asian migrants to gain residence in Russia, authorities are introducing a new, harder compulsory exam on Russian history, language, and civics. The new test, which foreigners seeking residence permits in Russia must pass, is a supplement to an already-existing exam. It features questions about former Soviet leader Josef Stalin and Russia's newest territorial holding, the Crimean Peninsula, as well as requiring test-takers to have an expanded Russian vocabulary of some 1,250 words.

April 8:

Russia's state statistics watchdog is seeking to get a more accurate picture of the national population.According to Kommersant, during Russia's last national census, back in 2010, an estimated 3.6 million citizens dodged ROSSTAT officials and monitors and didn't take part in the national tally. Millions of others misreported vital data about income, education, and other significant metrics. The bureau wants to correct this deficiency by increasing "penalties" for shoddy reporting by government agencies and by "making participation in the census mandatory" for all Russians.