Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1975

Related Categories: Russia

April 22:

Russia's renewed plans to sell advanced air defense systems to Iran has roiled Moscow's relations withIsrael, and caused considerable consternation among Western observers. Moscow has declared that the deal is legal within the parameters of existing sanctions against Iran, and the other P5+1 powers appear to agree. But in a recent live interview with Russian media, the transcript of which was published by RT, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted the real reason for the prospective sale: defense of an emerging strategic partner of the Russian Federation. Russia, he said, has long been fearful that Iran could become the target of an "illegal" use of force. "Those who want to attack Iran will think twice now."

Simultaneously, Russia is deepening its involvement in the fight against the Islamic State terrorist group. In the same interview, Foreign Minister Lavrov laid out that his government has stepped up arms deliveries to both Syria and Iraq as a hedge against the Islamist movement. "We are helping both Iraq and Syria, possibly more effectively than anyone else, by providing weapons to their armies and security forces," Reuters cites Lavrov as saying.

April 23:

The internal tensions laid bare in the aftermath of the recent assassination of opposition figure Boris Nemtsov are coming to a boil. The New York Times reports that Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov - in what represents a blatant slap at Kremlin authority - has ordered his security forces to open fire on Russian federal troops entering the region without prior approval from his regional administration. Kadyrov's political ambitions have become a growing source of vexation for the Kremlin in the aftermath of the Nemtsov murder, which highlighted the unaccountable nature of Kadyrov's private security detachment - a member of which has been implicated by Moscow in the killing, but whom Kadyrov has vehemently defended. Russia's interior ministry has fired back at Kadyrov's edict, terming it "unacceptable." It is not clear, however, when and if Moscow will move to test the Chechen leader's resolve.

American officials have publicly condemned Russia's growing military build-up in Ukraine. "The Russian military has deployed additional air defence systems into eastern Ukraine and moved several of these nearer the front lines," State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf has told reporters in comments carried by theFinancial Times. "This is the highest amount of Russian air defence equipment in eastern Ukraine since August." Moscow, meanwhile, has hit back against Washington, warning that the Obama administration's plan to deploy some 300 trainers to assist the Ukrainian military could "destabilise the situation." The outlook, observers say, is bleak. "Let's be honest, we're not seeing an improvement in the situation, things are getting worse," the Times cites one European ambassador as saying.

April 24:

The United States and Europe are waging a "hybrid war" against Russia, a senior Russian military official has warned, echoing Western allegations against Moscow's conduct in Ukraine. According to RBC, Col. Gen. Anatoly Sidorov, the commander of Russia's Western Military District, has warned that "the first phase of a hybrid war" by the West against Russia is now well underway, entailing an attempt to "shake the Russian economy through sanctions blows and to strengthen the autonomy of the EU and its main 'locomotives' - Germany and France."

April 25:

A top German policymaker is seeking economic accommodation with Russia over Ukraine, Radio Free Europe reports. In a recent, leaked letter to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier argues against further integration of Ukraine into the Eurozone without Russia's consent. Moving forward with Ukraine's integration through the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) would engender "an immediate response from Moscow." Instead, Steinmeier suggests that three-way talks between Russia, Ukraine and the EU be restarted as a way of figuring out "practical solutions" to Ukraine's status. According to Steinmeier, "the economic stability of Ukraine can hardly succeed without the participation of Russia," a state of affairs which necessitates a "pragmatic, interest-based and political approach without preconditions."