Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1980

Related Categories: Russia; Ukraine

May 13:

How durable are Western sanctions on Russia? According to the majority of Russian businesses, the answer is: "not very."Business website RBC reports that Russian firms have "reconsidered mass layoffs" - a measure that was once thought necessary as a result of Russia's dire economic straits. Now, an estimated two-thirds of companies in Russia will not be undergoing significant firings in the foreseeable future, according to research conducted by business consulting practice Hay Group.

May 14:

Russia's government has a new tool to enforce social order: politically-sympathetic vigilantes. The Moscow Times, citing Kommersant, reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin's "United Russia" party plans to form neighborhood patrols in Moscow in order to "maintain order and thwart petty crime." The decision follows last year's passage of legislation authorizing the involvement of citizens in the maintenance of public order. The militias, which will begin operating in coming weeks, "will be recruited from among private security companies, defense-oriented organizations and Cossack quasi-military associations," the paper reports.

Russia's domestic economic conditions continue to worsen.According to The Moscow Times, a new study by Nielsen has found that almost one-fifth of all Russians can now afford "nothing more than the absolute necessities." The culprits are double-digit inflation, caused by Western sanctions and the low world price of oil, and steep increases in the cost of staple commodities.

The countries of the Baltics are mobilizing to defend against possible Russian aggression,the Washington Times reports. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have all announced plans to formally request that the Alliance permanently deploy major contingents of troops on their soil. Baltic officials say that the step, which is now under formal consideration by NATO officials, is intended to provide the countries with a "measure of deterrence" in the face of Russia's aggressive moves in Ukraine - and the potential for Moscow to expand its territorial designs still further.

May 15:

Radio Free Europe is reporting new political moves in the investigation surrounding the murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. According to the news service, the lead detective in the case - a seasoned and well-respected investigator named Igor Krasnov - has been replaced. Krasnov has reportedly received a promotion, taking him off the Nemtsov case entirely. In his stead, Nikolai Tutevich, a detective who previously investigated homicides in the North Caucasus, will now head the probe - an apparent confirmation that authorities continue to focus on Chechen connections to the killing.

Observers, however, smell a rat. "If the investigation will continue to try to find the organizers and those who ordered the crime, then it means that this replacement really was a necessity," Vadim Prokhorov, a lawyer for the Nemtsov family, has told reporters. "But if they tell us that all of those who were involved have been found and there is no need to search for anyone else, then this replacement is a political decision."

May 16:

In an apparent response to NATO activism over Ukraine, Moscow is moving ahead with plans to deploy advanced missiles in the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. Itar-TASS reports that current military plans call for the relevant Ground Forces detachment deployed in Kaliningrad to be provided with the Islander-M ballistic missile system until at least 2018.