Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1997

Related Categories: Russia; Ukraine

July 23:

Russia is planning on starting its own national credit rating agency, reports The Moscow Times. The decision comes largely as a response to the downgrading of Russia's sovereign debt to junk status by U.S. rating agencies following Russia's aggression against Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions. Russia's credit downgrade has made it difficult and expensive for Russian firms to borrow money on international capital markets, leading the Russian Central Bank to initiate the move "in light of concerns over the quality of existing ratings and the low standing of local players." The planned agency will launch next year with an initial investment of 3 billion rubles ($52 million) drawn largely from big institutional investors like pension funds, insurers, state-owned banks and investment companies.

Russia is stiffening its stance on the Kuril islands once more. Itar-TASS reports that the Kremlin is planning to restore "both the civilian and defense infrastructure" as part of a new, targeted governmental program. The effort has been confirmed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who has taken a lead in Russian attempts to strengthen sovereignty over the islands - which are the subject of a long-running territorial dispute between Russia and Japan.

The new Kremlin plan involves the creation of "advanced development territories" within the Kurils, according to Medvedev. But the effort isn't just about prosperity and sovereignty; it's also about defense. According to the Russian premier, "the Armed Forces, and the Defense Ministry of Russia" will play a leading role in Russia's reinvigorated efforts on the disputed islands, because they "performed and will continue performing... the function of protecting our frontiers."

July 24:

Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula is turning into a politically costly and scandal-ridden venture for the Kremlin, a new analysis by Bloomberg notes. "Russia's federal security service, the FSB, has opened criminal investigations of three high-ranking Crimean government officials, accusing them of graft and other misdeeds," the news agency details. "Four regional cabinet ministers have been forced from office in the past few months over allegations of corruption. And Kremlin auditors reported in June that two-thirds of the money Moscow sent Crimea last year for road building couldn't be accounted for."

Russia, meanwhile, is footing the bill for Crimea's disarray. As Bloomberg points out, the Kremlin is "already paying 75 percent of the Crimean government's budget, while subsidizing pensions and other benefits for local residents." In light of reports of massive malfeasance, however, the Russian government's promises to provide the territory with $18 billion in aid over the next half-decade are bound to come under increased scrutiny.

July 25:

Russian authorities have arrested some thirty individuals in a Moscow suburb on suspicion of recruiting for the Islamic State terrorist group, RT reports. According to the state-controlled television channel, the arrests were carried out in Balashikha, some 20 kilometers outside the city center, where the individuals were allegedly "distributing extremist materials and hiring recruits."

July 26:

Russia is mobilizing for a "major world war," a top Russian military expert believes. In an interview with the Ukrainian news/analysis site "Apostrophe," Pavel Felgenhauer, one of Russia's most respected military specialists, notes that Russia has spent "many, many trillions" of rubles to rearm in preparation for a wider war in Europe. It has done so, moreover, over the objections of experts like former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who have warned of the dire consequences to Russia's already-rickety economy of such a course of action. The proximate objective, Felgenhauer notes, is further escalation in Ukraine. However, the ultimate target of Russi'’s military armament efforts is preparations to be able to fight NATO: "We were preparing for the 25th or 30th year."