September 28:
America's top commander in Europe is concerned about the purpose of Russia's military intervention in Syria,Defense News reports. According to Gen. Phillip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the Kremlin's military build-up in Syria consists of advanced weapons that are too sophisticated for a fight against the Islamic State terrorist group - the ostensible reason for Russia's involvement. Russia, Breedlove points out, has sent SA15 and SA22 surface-to-air missile defense systems to Syria for use against enemy planes, but ISIS does not have any airplanes warranting the use of such systems. The implication, therefore, is that Russia may be forming an A2AD (Anti-Access Area Denial) zone in Syria, much like it did in Crimea and Kaliningrad.
September 29:
Is Russian President Vladimir Putin eyeing the exits? The Moscow Times reports that, in a recent interview with Charlie Rose, Putin made comments that have heightened speculation about whether he will stand for a fourth term as president. "The period of my service will depend on two conditions," Putin told the American broadcaster. "Firstly, of course, there are rules stipulated by the Constitution, and I will certainly not infringe on them." And while Putin is technically eligible to stand for another term under the current Russian Constitution, the head of state appears to be less than settled on the prospect at the moment, making clear that his decision will ultimately "depend on the specific situation in the country, in the world and my own feelings about it."
Evelyn Farkas, the Defense Department's long-serving deputy assistant secretary for Russia and Ukraine, is resigning at the end of October due to differences with the White House over how to respond to Russian aggression in Ukraine and Syria,Politico reports. A senior defense official has told the paper that Farkas' departure would leave the Pentagon at a disadvantage on policymaking for Europe at a crucial time, and is likely to deepen the Administration's indecision regarding responses to Russian policy in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
September 30:
The Russian Orthodox Church is expanding into an unusual domain. According to The Moscow Times, construction has begun on an underwater church at the bottom of the Black Sea near Crimea. A spokesperson for the Russian Orthodox Church in Crimea has confirmed that the "initial structure" for the facility, in the form of a cross, has already been emplaced, and around it "the world's first underwater temple will be built, which will bear the name of St. Nicholas - sailors' patron saint." While it is unclear how worshippers will access the facility or carry out services in it, the structure is obviously intended to serve as a tourist attraction - and as a means to further solidify Russia's hold on the peninsula, which it unilaterally annexed in the spring of 2014.
Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, has unanimously voted in favor of President Putin's request to use Russia's military for air strikes in Syria,London's Guardian newspaper reports. Notably, in delineating the scope of Russian military action in the Syrian theater, Putin emphasized that Russian forces would not be involved in ground operations.
October 1:
Russia's military modernization program is far broader and more successful than commonly understood, a new report from the European Council on Foreign Affairs has concluded. "Russia has implemented far-reaching military reforms to create a more professional and combat-ready armed forces that can swiftly deploy abroad, backed by expertise in non- conventional warfare tactics such as subversion and propaganda," notes the report, entitled Russia's Quiet Military Revolution, and What It Means for Europe. "The West has misunderstood these reforms - focusing on shortcomings in equipment - and, as a result, has dangerously underestimated Russia's military capacity, as shown by its response to the Ukraine crisis."
Europe's response suffers from other systemic problems as well. "Europe's military advantage over Russia is undermined by low combat-readiness, understaffing, and the need to coordinate between countries," the study notes. In turn, it recommends that the countries of Europe "develop a united political response to Russian expansionism, including a coordinated position on nuclear deterrence, while preparing for hybrid scenarios."
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