Russia Reform Monitor: No. 2016

October 15:

The tenuous ceasefire in Ukraine is mostly holding for the moment, but the United States continues to move ahead with plans to bolster eastern European defenses against potential Russian aggression. Polish defense minister Tomasz Siemoniak has confirmed that his government expects a deployment of some 200 pieces of heavy military equipment in Poland by next summer, the Associated Press reports. The gear, intended as a deterrent against Moscow, will be emplaced at five separate sites throughout the country: "in Ciechanow, in the northeast... [at] an air base in Lask, a test range in Drawsko Pomorskie, warehouses in Skwierzyna and a spare location in Choszczno."

October 16:

The Moscow Times reports that credit rating agency Standard and Poor's has downgraded its forecast for Russian growth still further. According to the agency's latest projections, Russia's economy will contract by 3.6 percent this year, and grow by only 0.3 percent in 2016. "The change," the agency noted, "reflects our expectations of a more prolonged weakness in domestic demand due to lower and more volatile oil prices, and tighter fiscal and monetary policies through end-2016, compared with our previous assumptions."

October 17:

Worries over expanding Islamic radicalism in the post-Soviet space are leading the Kremlin to contemplate a more hands-on approach to the region. The Daily Telegraph reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed the establishment of a "NATO-style" task force made up of troops from the former Soviet states to secure regional borders and prevent the possibility of "spillover" from the current turmoil in Afghanistan. "The situation there is genuinely close to critical," Mr. Putin told other regional leaders during a summit in Kazakhstan. "Terrorists of different stripes are gaining more influence and do not hide their plans for further expansion."

October 19:

Russia's war aims in Syria are far broader than simply propping up the Assad regime. "The Kremlin's real goal is to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake as much as possible of the territory his forces have lost to opponents, including U.S.-backed rebels," reports Bloomberg, citing Kremlin officials. The strategy is animated by Moscow's conviction that there is "no moderate opposition" in Syria, leaving support for "terrorists" or for the Assad regime as the only viable political choices.

October 20:

Russia's government is intruding ever more forcefully into the country's academic and scientific arenas. Nature magazine reports that scientists at the biology institute of Moscow State University have been instructed to submit all of their research for publication to the First Department, an FSB branch that will vet the papers for state secrets. Mikhail Gelfand, a bioinformatician at MSU, said these laws are a return to the times of the Soviet Union when all research papers were vetted to make sure the information for publication was not new or important.

The Russian government has foiled over 20 major terrorist plots this year, according to Vladimir Putin. In a televised address covered by the Wall Street Journal, Russia's president outlined that since the start of 2015 the FSB has arrested 560 militants and killed 112 in raids in the North Caucasus as part of ramped-up counterterrorism operations in the North Caucasus. Moreover, Russia's internal security service thwarted two major terrorist plots in the span of two weeks in Moscow and southern Russia by militants purportedly linked to the Islamist State terrorist group and were working under the auspices of the extremist Islamist organization Hizb-ut Tahrir.

The BBC reports that, following several near-miss accidents involving U.S. and Russian aircraft, the two countries have signed a "deconfliction" agreement that will help them avoid clashes in Syrian airspace. The deal details rules, restrictions, means for communication between the two sides, including a hotline for use by military commanders.