Russia Reform Monitor: No. 2026

December 2:

As part of its ongoing political tensions with Turkey, Russia is leveling an explosive accusation at President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to RealClearPolitics, Russia's Defense Ministry has announced it has evidence that the Turkish president and his sons are directly involved in smuggling oil controlled by the Islamic State terrorist group to international markets. "Turkey is the main destination for the oil stolen from its legitimate owners, which are Syria and Iraq," Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov has told journalists in Moscow. "Turkey resells this oil. The appalling part about it is that the country's top political leadership is involved in the illegal business - President Erdogan and his family."

[EDITORS' NOTE: If true, the allegation is significant. The United States and its allies in Europe have attempted over the past year to curtail the growth and capabilities of the Islamic State by targeting its sources of revenue - its oil trade prominent among them. Russia's revelation suggests that Turkey - a key NATO ally - is actually working at cross purposes with this effort, and by doing so undermining the efficacy of Western economic pressure.]

Russia's deepening economic woes are changing the way ordinary Russians conduct commerce, The Moscow Times reports. Amid worsening economic conditions and soaring commodity prices, dozens of barter websites have popped up online, providing forums for Russians to "trade household items for food" in various cities throughout the country. The practice is most prevalent in Russia's eastern regions, where people have taken up the practice of barter trade as a "way of surviving the crisis."

December 3:

Syria's anti-regime forces are preparing to do battle with the Russian military. Citing a range of Arab language sources, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) reports that the Tahrir Homs militia - part of the opposition coalition known as the Free Syrian Army - has created a training facility to prepare its fighters to combat the tactics and doctrine of the Russian armed forces amid a widening Russian footprint in the country in support of the beleaguered Assad regime. The goals of the facility, MEMRI reports, include the provision of "new information regarding the Russian's military deployment in Syria and the new Russian weapons, their uses and their specifications."

Russia's recent falling out with Turkey is turning into a costly affair for the Kremlin, Reuters reports. The tabling of the "Turkish Stream" natural gas pipeline - work on which has been suspended as a result of mounting tensions between Moscow and Ankara - has left Russia in possession of unusable gas pipes worth close to $2 billion. The pipes have been "calibrated for a specific environment, pressure and capacity," according to one expert, and are therefore "only suitable for underwater pipelines in the Black Sea." They were originally intended for use in the South Stream pipeline, but that project was tabled last fall as part of Europe's response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. "Turkish Stream" provided an alternative use for the equipment, but now that that project is similarly on hold - leaving Russia with no means of utilizing the costly hardware.

December 4:

An attempted strike by dozens of truck drivers in and around Russia's capital, Moscow, has been thwarted by police, the Washington Post reports. Hundreds of truckers had been planning a coordinated strike throughout the city in what would have been the most significant protest of its kind in years. They were attempting a collective response to a new toll system called Platon, which dramatically hikes fees on heavy freight, but were foiled by local law enforcement, which prevented them from mobilizing the strike.

Yet observers say the abortive protest is nonetheless significant - and a sign of something bigger. "These are the beginnings of the political consequences of the economic crisis, and that is going to be the topic of 2016," according to Ekaterina Schulmann of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. "The truckers are something like the foam on the waves signifying the coming storm."