Russia Reform Monitor: No. 2033

December 30:

One of the leading critics of the Kremlin's handling of the national economy could be heading back into government. According to Bloomberg, Alexei Kudrin - a former Russian finance minister who has emerged as a strident critic of the Russian government's economic policies in recent years - is reportedly in talks with President Vladimir Putin and other top officials about returning to government service. While Kudrin himself has maintained that a concrete job offer "was not discussed," observers familiar with the proceedings say that the financial heavyweight is indeed being considered for a senior post in Putin's cabinet.

[EDITORS' NOTE: News of Kudrin's possible return represents a positive step for the Russian government - and a sign of growing official recognition of the country's dire economic straits. Over the past year-and-a-half, the former finance minister has become an outspoken critic of the Russian government's rosy economic predictions in the face of Western sanctions and low oil prices, which he has maintained do not comport with reality. His possible return to the Kremlin suggests that President Putin and his followers recognize that a major economic overhaul is necessary if the country is to remain fiscally solvent.]

In the wake of the downing of a Russian airliner over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula by the Islamic State terrorist group, the Russian government is tightening security at Egyptian airports. The Egypt Independent newspaper reports that the Kremlin has sent the Egyptian government a draft memorandum requesting that Russian experts be involved in screening and security procedures at Egyptian airports.

December 31:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ringing in the new year with a new and more confrontational national security strategy. Radio Free Europe reports that the new document, published on New Year's Eve Day, highlights the Kremlin's deteriorating relations with the West, accusing the United States and Europe of attempting to "contain" the Russian Federation and of applying "political, economic, military, and informational pressure" against Moscow.

The new document likewise reflects a mounting sense of siege in Moscow. The strategy accuses Western nations of encroaching on Moscow's traditional geopolitical backyard of Central Asia and the Caucasus, and of creating "levers of tension in the Eurasian region" in order "to damage Russia's 'national interests'" there. As Moscow sees it, moreover, the United States and its allies are to blame for the conflict that has unfolded in Ukraine over the past year-and-a-half. "The support of the United States and the European Union of an unconstitutional government coup in Ukraine has led to a deep schism in Ukrainian society and the outbreak of armed conflict," the strategy document says.

January 1, 2016:

Recent Russian forecasts of demographic trends have been guardedly optimistic, but deep-seated systemic problems remain. Russia expert Paul Goble, writing in his Window on Eurasia blog, cites recent projections by Russian demographers which suggest that, unless "revolutionary" change takes place, "Russia's demographic decline will accelerate in the coming years and its population will fall in this century to just over half of what it is now." Recent steps taken by the Russian government - including the Federation Council's decision, in late December, to extend the so-called "marital capital" program - has had some tangential benefit, Russian demographers say. On the whole, however, it has not heralded a sea-change in Russia's demographic trajectory.

Goble cites Boris Denisov of Moscow State University as saying that the past nine years have seen the Kremlin spend $20 billion on the "marital capital" program in an attempt to boost the birth rate. But now, "the Russian government is reducing the amount it spends on this program" and "the size of the Russian population will fall because the number of women in prime childbearing age groups will fall" - trends which migration into the country alone won't be able to offset.

Russia's deepening diplomatic row with Turkey is spilling over into commercial ties between the two nations.Sputnik reports that, pursuant to a decree passed by Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev in December, starting this month Russian companies are banned from hiring Turkish citizens. The prohibition, levied by the Kremlin as part of worsening ties between Moscow and Ankara over the November downing by Turkey of a Russian fighter jet, is one of several "special economic measures" issued against Turkey to date by the Russian government.