January 1:
Residents of Russia's newest holding are facing a hard choice. London's Telegraph newspaper reports that the Crimean Peninsula, which recently found itself without power when electrical lines from Ukraine were sabotaged, is facing a similar - albeit more protracted - dilemma. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly poised to reject a new energy contract with Ukraine that would provide reliable power for the Peninsula, because the deal's wording suggests that Crimea and Sevastopol are still part of Ukraine. A recent poll of Crimeans conducted by the Russian government found resounding opposition to the deal as currently worded - leaving the region facing months of ongoing blackouts, because, as Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov has said, Putin "will decide not to sign" the deal as currently formulated.
[EDITORS' NOTE: Given the effect of Russia's increasingly authoritarian political climate on pollsters and respondents alike, the results of public opinion surveys in Russia should be viewed with some caution.]
January 2:
Russia's new national security strategy identifies NATO as a cardinal threat, the Financial Times reports. The new policy paper, unveiled publicly by President Putin on New Year's Eve, identifies a range of Alliance activities as harmful and threatening to Russian interests. These include "the intensification of military activities of member countries" and the "moving military infrastructure closer to Russia's borders" - actions taken by NATO in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine - as well as the "further expansion of the alliance" (now being considered with the inclusion of Montenegro) as being threats to Russian national security.
January 4:
A leading Russian intelligence official has died suddenly. According to Wall Street Journal, the Kremlin has announced that Col. Gen. Igor Sergun, the 58-year-old head of Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, passed away on January 3rd. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who disclosed Sergun's death, offered no additional details regarding the long-time spymaster's unexpected demise.
The impact of Sergun's sudden death on Russian military and intelligence circles is likely to be immense. "Sergun was an extremely important figure in the revival of the fortunes of the GRU, an agency that was pretty much at rock bottom when he took it over at the end of 2011," writes Russia expert Mark Galeotti in his blog "In Moscow's Shadows." "Since then, it has regained control over the Spetsnaz special forces, been crucial in the seizure of Crimea and operations in the Donbas, emerged as the lead agency for dealing with violent non-state actors and generally consolidated its position as a crucial instrument of today's 'non-linear war.'"
Is Russian President Vladimir Putin edging toward a compromise on Ukraine? Writing in the Atlantic Council'sThe Atlanticist blog, Anders Aslund notes that a recent administrative appointment may signal a shift toward negotiations on the part of the Kremlin. "On December 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed one of his close, trusted aides, Boris Gryzlov, Russia's representative in the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which concluded the two Minsk agreements on the Donbas in September 2014 and February 2015," Aslund notes. "This appointment suggests an important change in Russia's policy toward Ukraine." Indeed, over the past year, military setbacks and mounting economic obligations have led Moscow to shift its strategy in Ukraine from the "active military phase" to the "long-term management of frozen conflicts" - and Russia's government is now staffing up to accomplish this goal.
Ukraine has halted imports of various foods, including fish, meat and vegetables, from Russia, CNN reports. The decision, formally announced by Kyiv, is an apparent retaliation for Russia's decision last month to bar "agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs produced in Ukraine."
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