Russia Reform Monitor: No. 2240

July 9:

The Kremlin is ramping up its assault on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. After branding the outlet with a "foreign agent" designation last December due to its U.S. government funding, a Moscow court has now levied a $1,600 fine on the organization for failing to comply with the designation's reporting requirements. In its own coverage of the verdict, RFE/RL notes that the fine may signal a further escalation of tactics, as the lower house of the Russian parliament begins debate on a new proposal that would allow the application of the "foreign agent" designation to individuals as well as organizations. That proposal has drawn sharp criticism from non-profit media watchdogs, the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the U.S. State Department for further undermining media freedoms in Russia.

Now that the March nerve gas attack in Salisbury, England appears to have belatedly claimed its first victim, how will Britain hold Russia accountable? The New York Times reports that top British officials are finally publicly blaming Russia for the death last week of Salisbury resident Dawn Sturgess and plan to pursue their complaint further at this week's NATO summit. According to the Times, Defense Minister Gavin Williamson told Parliament that Russia had committed an attack on British soil, while Home Secretary Sajid Javid was more guarded but admitted the implausibility of any party but Russia being at fault. The latest development in the Novichok saga has reignited public fears: British counterterrorism officials warned that Sturgess likely inadvertently handled the contaminated container used to transport the chemical agent to Salisbury, but law enforcement has yet to locate the container, and other members of the public may be at risk.

President Trump's upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin carries high stakes for Ukraine, and officials in Kyiv have sought explicit assurances from the U.S. government that their interests will not be traded away in the process. An anonymous Ukrainian diplomat has told Reuters that "it is important for us that no nasty surprise happens behind our backs, and we received assurances (from the U.S. side) that this will not happen." Kyiv's chief concern is that Putin may convince Trump one-on-one to reverse course and recognize the Crimean annexation, despite the fact that the U.S. government has backed Ukraine with a number of policy tools, including the provision of military aid and imposition of sanctions on Russia.

July 11:

In response to widespread outrage among Russians regarding the Kremlin's proposed pension age hike, the State Duma is seeking to amend the controversial plan - at least somewhat. According to RBC, Russian lawmakers have suggested a tweak to the legislation that would reduce the number of extra years Russian women would have to work from eight to five. Originally, the bill on pension reform put forward by the Duma, with Kremlin support, had called for the retirement age to rise from 60 to 65 for Russian men and from 55 to 63 for Russian women by the year 2028.

Are the Kremlin's political machinations poisoning the historically-friendly Russo-Greek relationship? Buzzfeed reports that Greece has expelled four Russian diplomats for "alleged meddling in domestic affairs and national security," triggering retaliatory diplomatic expulsions on Moscow’s part.

While the Greek government has been loathe to comment on the situation further, the Greek paper Kathimerini asserts that the diplomats may have tried to sabotage plans for potential NATO membership for neighboring Macedonia by exploiting nationalist Greek political divides and bribing officials in the Greek Orthodox Church to oppose the deal. The paper also alleges links between the expelled Russian diplomats and a religious group called the Imperial Orthodox Palestinian Society, whose leader is former director of the Russian Security Services Sergei Stepashin.

Has the time come for the Kremlin to recognize its "vacationers?" According to Al-Monitor, a group of Russian veterans - including multiple high-ranking retired officers and former officials - have written to President Vladimir Putin demanding official recognition of the private military contractors (PMCs) fighting in Syria and legalization of their status as armed combatants employed by the state. Since the Russian criminal code formally outlaws private military companies, veterans from the Syrian conflict who are employed by firms like the Wagner Group and Patriot currently cannot receive the same protections and medical care post-deployment that other veterans do, despite growing recognition of their footprint in the fighting.

[EDITORS' NOTE: While PMCs are an increasingly important element of Russia's warfighting strategy and its foreign policy in the Middle East, it is one that is likely to remain formally unacknowledged. As Al-Monitor notes, several factors militate against changing the current status quo in Kremlin policy toward PMCs, including long-standing and near unanimous government opposition to mercenary legalization, continued Kremlin denials that these groups even exist, politicization of the issue by domestic interest groups, and the benefit to the Kremlin of plausible deniability in sensitive ground operations abroad.]