Russia Policy Monitor No. 2684 | American Foreign Policy Council

MORE REGULATION OF RUSSIAN SCIENCE
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a new law giving the Federal Security Service (FSB) authority to track contacts between Russian scientific organizations and foreign organizations and individuals. An explanation attached to the bill, which was passed by the State Duma earlier in June, claimed that the measure is intended to limit the dissemination of scientific research to foreign entities. Its authors insist that such a step will not infringe upon "freedom of scientific creativity." (Meduza, June 24, 2025)

[EDITORS' NOTE: While criminal cases against scientists in Russia have increased sharply in past years, the policy has recently seemed to be in retreat. Back in February, Putin encouraged the FSB to take a "calmer" approach in such cases. That reprieve, however, looks to have been merely temporary.]

RUSSIA'S PARTNERSHIP WITH IRAN REACHES ITS LIMITS
Despite its ongoing strategic ties to Iran, Russia was conspicuously absent from the conversation during the most recent Mideast war. The Kremlin provided little meaningful support to the Islamic Republic amid airstrikes from Israel and then the United States. President Putin made no mention of providing military support to the Iranian regime when meeting with Iran's top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, on June 23rd, instead emphasizing opportunities for Tehran to extricate itself from the conflict.

The exchange highlighted the extent to which Russia is prepared to support the Iranian regime in the face of Western pressure – and to support steps that the Iranian government may be contemplating in response. "Iran can ask Russia to back it up in retaliation to the U.S., but Moscow will never accept it," says Nikolay Kozhanov of Qatar University. (Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2025)

A STEP TOWARD BELATED JUSTICE FOR RUSSIAN AGGRESSION
In late June, the Council of Europe and Ukraine signed an agreement to create a special tribunal on Russian aggression, a measure long advocated by Ukrainian President Zelensky. The tribunal, once operational, will have jurisdiction over a range of crimes, from planning to execution of acts of aggression, and will have the ability to prosecute the Russian president and other top Kremlin officials. "Functional immunity does not apply here; high-ranking officials can be prosecuted even while holding office," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna has explained. "The statute provides rules for conducting proceedings if the accused is absent." The tribunal will cooperate and share information with the International Criminal Court, which has already issued warrants for President Putin as well as Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia's Commissioner for Children’s Rights. The latter has been implicated in the large-scale seizure and deportation to Russia of Ukrainian children. (Kyiv Independent, June 25, 2025)

RUSSIA TAKES AIM AT UKRAINE... VIA SIGNAL
Ukraine has identified new cyberattacks emanating from Russia and using the Signal messaging app to deliver two novel strains of malware. Western governments tied the attacks back to Unit 26165 of Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU. Ukraine's computer emergency response team reported that the hackers sent a Word document containing malicious macro commands via Signal, and used "social engineering" to convince the subjects to open the file. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia is increasingly using Signal to target military and government personnel with malware, exploiting the application's lack of integration with conventional antivirus tools. In a prior scam, hackers purporting to be officials requested an official signature to encourage victims to open an attachment. (The Record, June 24, 2025)

IRAN'S LOSS, RUSSIA’S GAIN
After years of delays, Beijing is once again interested in building a pipeline to transport Russian natural gas to China. The PRC's revived interest comes amid concerns about the reliability of energy imports from the Middle East as a result of the recent Israel-Iran war. As part of potential retaliation, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz – a measure which, if enacted, would have a catastrophic effect on China's energy situation, since the Strait is the waterway responsible for transporting some 30 percent of China's natural gas imports. "The volatility and unpredictability of the military situation have shown the Chinese leadership that stable land-based pipeline supply has geopolitical benefits," explains Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

The "Power of Siberia 2" natural gas pipeline, if revived, would be a boon for Moscow, which continues to grapple with the loss of the European market for its oil and gas exports. An additional pipeline could therefore significantly boost Russia's economy, as well as strengthen Moscow's ties to Beijing at precisely the time when the Trump administration is seeking to disrupt Sino-Russian cooperation. However, the route is not a quick fix for Russia's dire economic position. Among other impediments, experts estimate that construction would take about five years. (Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2025)