South Asia Security Monitor: No. 208

Related Categories: Energy Security; Military Innovation; Terrorism; India

January 19:

The Bush administration’s controversial new nuclear deal with North Korea appears to be under threat, as an intense internal debate within the U.S. government spills over into the public arena. “North Korea is not serious about disarming in a timely manner,” argues Jay Lefkowitz, the Administration’s envoy on North Korean human rights. “We should consider a new approach to North Korea.” The comments, made by Lefkowitz to the American Enterprise Institute, caused an uproar among advocates of the deal, largely concentrated within the State Department. Presently, the deal remains intact, with the North receiving some 150,000 tons of fuel from the U.S., according to the New York Times. But the Bush administration is unsatisfied with the North’s intransigence on a number of critical fronts, among them disclosures regarding the number of warheads and nuclear fuel produced in recent years, as well as any transfers of nuclear material to third parties that may have taken place.


January 24:


Al Qaeda has experienced a “resurgence” in Pakistan’s tribal regions, and is now turning its sights on the Pakistani government, U.S. intelligence assessments say. The Washington Times reports that the terror network has also entrenched its links with a number of Islamist groups in the region, including the Taliban, obtaining the “physical and psychological space to operate freely.” Al-Qaeda’s resurgence is not confined to the region, however; American intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about the group’s spreading influence in northern Africa, its worldwide propaganda campaign – which has been kicked into “high gear” over the last year – and the “spiritual guidance” it provides to al-Qaeda in Iraq and its other proxies.


January 25:


France and India are set to deepen cooperation on a range of issues, from a nuclear energy partnership to intelligence sharing and arms sales, reports the Agence France Presse. France, already India’s third largest arms supplier, has joined the United States in working to bring India back into the international nuclear regulatory regime, decades after undeclared nuclear tests earned it pariah status at the International Atomic Energy Agency. On a recent visit to the country, French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to take ties between the two countries “beyond a buyer-seller relationship,” while at the same time maneuvering to grab a portion of the $30 billion India is expected to spend on arms over the next five years – the most of any country in the developing world.


January 27:


Growing displeasure with the Pakistani government’s efforts to crack down on the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the country’s tribal regions prompted a January visit to Islamabad by America’s top two intelligence officials. According to the Associated Press, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell and CIA chief Michael Hayden were sent to press Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to allow U.S. forces greater freedom to operate in parts of the South Asian state that remain outside the central government’s control.

The pair, however, were rebuffed by Musharraf, at least publicly. The president told Singapore’s Straits Times that U.S. forces operating in Pakistan would be deemed “invaders” if they entered the country’s tribal regions. “I challenge anybody coming into our mountains,” Musharraf said. “They would regret that day.”


January 31:


United Press International reports that plans for a much-anticipated natural gas pipeline – designed to bring Iranian gas to India and Pakistan from the Islamic Republic’s massive South Pars field – have been stalled in New Delhi for months over pricing disputes. Talks have reportedly been hung up by disputes over exactly how much India will pay for the projected 90 million cubic meters it is expected to receive from pipeline, and the cost Pakistan can charge New Delhi for “transit fees.” All of which, the news agency says, would suit Washington just fine; the White House has expressed its displeasure over the potential deal, and lobbied heavily for India to cut its energy ties to Tehran.