South Asia Security Monitor: No. 240

[With this issue of the Asia Security Monitor, we change editorship, direction and title. Consistent with AFPC's focus on security in South and Southwest Asia, the new South Asia Security Monitor will henceforth focus on security and political developments related to India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and other states in South Asia. AFPC Research Fellow Richard Harrison steps down as editor to focus on China-related projects. We thank him for his longstanding stewardship of the Asia Security Monitor. Editorial duties will be taken up by AFPC Kraemer Strategy Fellow Jeff M. Smith.]

NEW DELHI COURTS MALDIVES FOR INDIAN OCEAN EXPANSION
A trip to the Maldives by Indian defense minister AK Antony represents a new leg in India’s drive to fortify its position in the Indian Ocean. A chain of some 1,000 tiny tropical islands off its southwestern coast, the Maldives offers India an opportunity to “expand its perimeter defence”. India would like integrate the Maldives into its coastguard system and has talked about developing a former Royal Air Force base and deploying surveillance aircraft and ships. New Delhi is concerned by China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean, which a series of port projects in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh dubbed the “string of pearls.” (London Telegraph, August 20, 2009)

TABLES TURNED IN SWAT
A Pakistan army offensive this summer effectively repelled and reversed an invasion of the Swat valley by Taliban militants and their allies. Several months after the operation, refugees have begun returning home and the army is pushing the fight to other parts of the NorthWest Frontier Province. However, violence continues to plague the scenic but strategic valley, and not all of it is being perpetrated by the Taliban. In fact, the tables have turned as some Pakistanis have conducted “revenge killings” against Taliban members and collaborators that have remained in the valley. Dozens of bodies have been found blindfolded and riddled with bullet wounds. Innocent people are reported to have been caught up in the violence but some resident’s view the bloody reprisals as a necessary evil: “They must be punished for their atrocities, for beheading people, lashing girls and destroying schools,” says shopkeeper Ameer Muhammed. (London Sunday Times, August 30, 2009)

[Editor’s Note: It is unlikely the civilians of Swat are the only ones perpetrating such acts. Pakistan’s security and intelligence services have a long and storied record of extra-judicial killings.]

NEPAL MUZZLES TIBETAN PROTESTERS
Ten Tibetan protesters have been detained by Nepali riot police for protesting in front of a high-level Chinese delegation. The Himalayan kingdom, which borders Chinese Tibet, hosts around 20,000 exiled Tibetans. However, Kathmandu firmly supports Beijing’s “One China” policy which insists that Tibet is an integral part of China. Nepal has grown closer to China since the conclusion of its ten year civil war in 2006 and the inclusion of the former rebel Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) in the government. The number of Tibetans making the journey through Nepal to join their exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, in India has fallen since China’s crackdown in Tibet in March 2008. (Agence France Presse, September 2, 2009)

U.S. IRKED AT PAK MODIFYING MISSILES
Pakistan has been accused by the United States of violating the Arms Control Export Act by illegally modifying Harpoon anti-ship missiles and P-3C aircraft. Pakistan is accused of modifying the defensive weapons delivered to Islamabad beginning in 1985 into offensive weapons that could be used by Pakistan’s navy to strike land targets. The P-3C, a maritime patrol aircraft, is also being modified for land-attack missions, according to military and intelligence officials. U.S. suspicions were piqued by an unannounced April 23 missile test that appeared to be a modified Harpoon.

Pakistani officials have denied the claim and some U.S. defense experts have expressed skepticism given Pakistan’s existing arsenal of land-attack missiles superior to a modified Harpoon. Regardless, U.S. officials – who are now mulling a $7.5 billion aid package to Pakistan – remain concerned about Pakistan’s ongoing focus on expanding its conventional arsenal for a potential war with India which they consider a distraction from the more important fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban. (New York Times, August 29, 2009)