South Asia Security Monitor: No. 246

KARACHI MOVES INTO TALIBAN CROSSHAIRS
Karachi, Pakistan’s financial capital, primary southern port, and the largest Muslim-majority city in the world, managed to evade much of the Islamist-driven violence that has plagued the north and east of Pakistan in recent years. However, that may be changing. Karachi has long been host to a large Pashtun community (estimated at some two million) and the Taliban are widely understood to have established financing, logistics, and kidnapping operations in the city. Perhaps because it was perceived “safe haven,” Karachi had been spared from the Taliban suicide bombing campaign seen in cities like Peshawar, Islamabad, and Lahore. The status quo was shattered in late December, when a suicide bomb attack killed 43 people and destroyed more than 500 shops in Karachi during the Shi’ite festival of Ashura. The Taliban claimed responsibility, and termed the attack a response to the ongoing military offensive and U.S. drone strikes. Moreover, Pakistani officials have confirmed reports that large numbers of Taliban fighters have fled for Karachi from the tribal areas since the Pakistani military began an offensive there last fall. Last November, U.S. intelligence officials insisted they had evidence that Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar had fled Quetta, the capital of neighboring Baluchistan province, and with the help of Pakistan’s notorious intelligence directorate, the ISI, had taken refuge in Karachi where he set up a new “senior leadership council.” (Washington Times, November 20, 2009; Lahore Daily Times, January 9, 2010; Voice of America, December 30, 2009)

VIOLENCE RETURNS TO KASHMIR
Two heavily armed Pakistani terrorists launched an attack in Srinagar, the summer capital of Indian-administered Kashmir, in the first week of January, killing two people and injuring ten others. The militants intended to ignite suicide vests at a police camp but were stopped by a routine check and engaged in a 22-hour gun-battle after holing up in the Punjab Hotel. India’s Home Ministry said the pair was “in constant touch with their Pakistani handlers during the siege” - an MO shared by the Pakistani militants who killed 173 people in Mumbai in November 2008. Indian officials also believe more attacks are to come, with as many as “700 fully-trained terrorists” from jihadist outfits such as Lashkar-e-Taiba said to be trained and ready. Intercepts from the Srinagar attacks captured Pakistani handlers talking of opening “new fronts.” According to official figures, 110 “terrorists” entered the Kashmir Valley in 2009. (Times of India, January 8 and January 8, 2010)

IN NEPAL, MAOISTS PUSH THE ENVELOPE
Nepal’s Maoists continue to ratchet up tensions with their own government and neighboring India, giving opposing political parties one month to consider their demands and agree to a national unity government, and threatening a “decisive” phase of protests. Three top Maoists officials have also led protest rallies to three disputed areas along the 1,800 km Indo-Nepal border, where they claim India has encroached upon their sovereignty. The Maoists are also seeking to scrap “unequal” treaties signed with India, including the comprehensive Indo-Nepal Peace and Friendship Treaty signed in 1950. (Agence France Presse, December 22, 2009; Bangkok Thaindian News, January 11, 2010)

AFGHAN INTEL FAILURES EXPOSED
Breaking with precedent, America’s top military spy chief in Afghanistan has unleashed a wave of criticism directed at the intelligence community via a report titled “Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan.” Among the adjectives used to describe intelligence officers in the report were “ignorant,” “incurious,” “hazy,” and “disengaged.” The document, known as the Flynn Report after primary author Major General Michael Flynn, comes at a sensitive time for the intelligence community, given the failed Christmas day airline bomber and the successful al-Qaeda triple agent who killed six CIA operatives at Camp Chapman in Afghanistan. It argues that the U.S. intelligence community is only “marginally relevant to the overall strategy.” The unusually harsh report and its recommendations received a significant boost when Defense Secretary Robert Gates endorsed its findings, which includes the following recommendation: “Analysts must absorb information with the thoroughness of historians, organize it with the skill of librarians and disseminate it with the zeal of a journalist.” (Bangkok Post, January 5, 2010; Reuters, January 7, 2010)