South Asia Security Monitor: No. 249

SORE WINNERS IN SRI LANKA
Defeating his former army chief, Gen. Sarath Fonseka, in a January 26 general election wasn’t enough for Sri Lanka’s incumbent president, Mahinda Rajapaksa. To start his new term, Rajapaksa immediately imprisoned his opponent on February 8 for corruption, “military offences” while serving as army chief, and conspiracy to stage a coup. [Editor’s note: Rajapaksa had Fonseka’s campaign headquarters, a hotel, surrounded with troops even before the votes were counted.] Hours before he was arrested, Fonseka announced at a press conference that he had evidence that the Sri Lankan government (led by Rajapaksa) had committed war crimes against the Tamil Tigers during the violent conclusion last year of a decades-long war against the insurgent group. Fonseka is not the president’s only target, however; Rajapaksa ordered the arrest of 10 retired army officers and has purged the army of Fonseka supporters, forcing the retirement of five Major Generals, five Brigadiers and one Colonel. (Policy Research Group February 19, 2010)

INDIA WARMS TO TALKS WITH THE TALIBAN
After years of advocacy by the United Nations, European Union, and the Afghan government, the United States over the past year finally came around to the idea of negotiating with the Taliban – albeit at the “second- and third-tiers.” However, the one party that remained adamantly opposed to such a policy has been India, which argued that there is a negligible distinction between “good” and “bad” Taliban. But in the aftermath of a major conference in London on the future of Afghanistan, where the negotiations track received great attention – and support -- New Delhi appears to be softening its stance. “We're willing to give it a try. If the Taliban meet the three conditions put forward – acceptance of the Afghan constitution, severing connections with al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, and renunciation of violence… we could do business,” Foreign Minister SM Krishna told the Times of India on the sidelines of the London conference. However, India’s evolution – a bid to show regional support for Karzai’s plan – is a reluctant one, as Krishna made clear: “We consider them to be terrorists… We’re next door and our experiences make it difficult for us to differentiate between good or bad Taliban.” (Times of India January 30, 2010)

BOMB BLAST IN PUNE BREAKS INDIAN PEACE
On February 13 India experienced its first major domestic terrorist attack since an assault on Mumbai in November of 2008 killed 173 people. One day after Pakistan and India agreed to resume talks – frozen after that attack on Mumbai, which was traced to Pakistani-backed terrorists – a blast ripped through a packed restaurant in Pune, 60 miles from Mumbai, killing 11 people. Several were arrested after the blast and a previously unknown group named Lashkar-e-Taiba al-Almi, an offshoot of the notorious Lashkar-e-Taiba believed responsible for the Mumbai attacks, claimed responsibility. The Lashkar al-Almi representative who took responsibility phoned The Hindu newspaper from North Waziristan and insisted his group split from its parent organization because Lashkar-e-Taiba “took its orders from Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI.” (BBC February 17, 2010)

INDIAS BM PROGRAM RAISES EYEBROWS IN ASIA
India’s ballistic missile program is garnering attention after New Delhi announced that within a year it would test a 5,000-km range nuclear-capable ballistic missile, the Agni V. The news comes on the heels of third round of successful tests of India’s 3,500-km Agni III. Much of the regional attention paid to the announcement focused on the implications for China, as India’s missile arsenal can already reach neighbor and rival Pakistan. And Indian officials have not shied away from technical comparisons with China. Agni Programme Director Avinash Chander recently explained that the Agni III was more accurate than its Chinese counterparts and could strike within a few hundred meters of its target. Meanwhile, on the subject of missile defense programs, the chief of India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), VK Saraswat, stated “We are senior to China in terms of missile defence technology… we are technologically way ahead of them.” India plans to conduct a missile defense test in late February against a target at a range of over 15 km. (Indian Express February 11, 2010)