MALABAR WAR GAMES ON, MINUS JAPAN
The Malabar naval exercises, an annual series of war games held between the U.S. and India will go forward this spring in the western Pacific, but without the participation of Japan, who is reeling from the effects of a devastating earthquake-tsunami and the resulting nuclear radiation leaks. There have been twelve Malabar exercises to date, with ten of them being conducted off the Indian coast. The two that took place in the Pacific included Japan’s maritime forces, as was the plan for this year before Japan was hit with catastrophe. India has sent five naval warships, four destroyers and a massive tanker, from its Eastern fleet to participate in exercises with the U.S. beginning April 2, and the flotilla will make stops in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China, Japan, Korea, Russia and Singapore. (PTI March 30, 2011; Brahmand.com March 18, 2011)
INDIA PHASING OUT MIG FLEET
Russian-made MiG fighters have formed the backbone of India’s air force for decades, at once constituting over 75% of India’s combat fleet. That era is fast coming to an end. The MiGs, some in service since the early 1960s, have been incredibly accident-prone, with India losing 350 of the 793 MiG-21s in its fleet to accidents and crashes. Between 2014 and 2017 India plans to phase out its aging MiG series as a massive spending spree on new fighter aircraft begins to bear fruit. India has already begun receiving what will eventually be a fleet of 270 Sukhoi-30MKIs, in a $12 billion deal with Russia, and is hammering out details to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter with Russia in a $35 billion project that would net India between 250 and 300 advanced aircraft. Then there is the giant tender outstanding for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), a contract sought by European, U.S., and Russian defense firms valued at $10.4 billion. The MMRCA contract will be awarded in the next year. Finally, by 2014, India will begin inducting its indigenously-manufactured Tejas light combat aircraft. (Times of India February 24, 2011; Defense News February 28, 2011)
TTP FACING FINANCIAL CRUNCH
Mounting evidence suggests the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is facing a “serious financial crisis” largely due to tight controls the Pakistani Army has put in place (they have secured a tight cordon around the TTP stronghold of South Waziristan since 2009). Other factors include a U.S. crackdown on drug money funneling into Pakistan from Afghanistan and heavy losses al Qaeda has faced at the hands of CIA-operated drone strikes and U.S. operations in Afghanistan. A Pakistani intelligence official tells Pakistan’s Express Tribune, “Al Qaeda is on the run now… most of the private Arab money to the TTP used to come through them. That has evaporated now.” Pakistani officials also admit that group is facing numerous defections and a loss of safe havens along the Af-Pak border. “The group is in a fix to even keep its infrastructure comprising several thousand foot soldiers and a huge fleet of vehicles.” (Express Tribune February 28, 2011)
[Editor’s note: Though there are some inter-linkages, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is a separate organization from the Afghan Taliban. The TTP was formed in 2007 as an offshoot of the original Afghan Taliban and has focused its attacks on the Pakistani state. Islamabad has been forceful about confronting the TTP, but has done little to crack down on the Afghan Taliban targets U.S. troops and the Afghan government in Afghanistan.]
DISSENSION IN THE AFGHAN TALIBAN’S RANKS
The Afghan Taliban is facing its own troubles, though it has little to do with any initiative Islamabad has taken against the group. Taliban members speaking to the Washington Post have reported fissures between the Taliban’s leadership, which is based in Pakistan, and ground commanders who have been doing the fighting -- and suffering the heavy losses – in Afghanistan. A surge in U.S. troops that began last year has dealt the Taliban a series of tactical defeats in their traditional strongholds of Kandahar and Helmand and U.S. forces have specifically targeted Taliban field commanders, with increasing effectiveness. Taliban fighters fleeing into their safe havens in Pakistan are under pressure from commanders based there to return to Afghanistan and fight the Americans. “Definitely there is disagreement between the field commanders and the leaders over their demands to go and fight,” says a 45-year old veteran Taliban commander. The friction is not only between top leaders and field commanders, however. U.S. intelligence is increasingly identifying fissures within the top ranks of the Taliban leadership in Pakistan. The commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus, noted in January “numerous reports of unprecedented discord among the members of the Quetta Shura,” the group’s top leadership body. (New York Times February 21, 2011)