South Asia Security Monitor: No. 275

PAKISTANIS DOUBT BIN LADEN RAID
The Economist reports on a recent poll out of Pakistan that highlights the country’s attitude toward the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden – and the Pakistani public’s penchant for conspiracy theories. Conducted by Gallup in Pakistan between May 7 and 10th, the poll of some 2,500 respondents found that roughly two-thirds believe the American raid to kill bin Laden, who was found residing in an upscale compound near Pakistan’s premier military academy, was an infringement on Pakistan’s sovereignty. More surprisingly, half of those surveyed thought the entire operation was staged and only a quarter believe the al Qaeda chief was actually killed. Nearly half (44%), meanwhile, described bin Laden as a “martyr” while just over a quarter (26%) identified him as a “criminal.” The poll also shows that the reputation of the Pakistani military, the most venerated institution in the country, has taken a hit in the wake of the raid (and even more so after a brazen attack on the Mehran Naval Base in Karachi in late May). The poll found 48% of Pakistanis believed the army “connived” with the American government on the operation to kill bin Laden, despite denials that this was the case from both Washington and Islamabad. Even more, some 57%, believe the civilian government, which is deeply unpopular in Pakistan, was complicit in the raid by U.S. Navy Seals. (The Economist, May 13, 2011)

U.S., TALIBAN “ACCELERATE” TALKS
Direct talks between U.S. officials and representatives from the Taliban, an idea once shunned by Washington, have “accelerated” in the past few months, and have taken place at higher levels and with greater frequency than previously acknowledged. According to an unnamed Afghan official, a U.S. representative was present at “at least three meetings in Qatar and Germany… with a Taliban official considered close to Mohammad [“Mullah”] Omar,” the overall commander of the Afghan Taliban. In recent years, several channels have been opened between the Afghan government and Taliban officials, with varying degrees of success. Washington was burned last year when secret talks were opened with an alleged Taliban leader who turned out to be a fraud. The Taliban has made clear, however, that it seeks direct negotiations with the U.S., and has proposed establishing a formal political office, possibly in Qatar or Turkey. And, off the record, U.S. officials have said the “exploratory” conversations now going on “have advanced significantly in terms of substance and the willingness of both sides to engage.”

However, the Taliban have demanded the full withdrawal of U.S. troops as a precondition to any settlement – a condition Washington is unwilling to accept. The Taliban also demand the release of 20 fighters being held at Guantanamo Bay, and seek a guarantee of Taliban inclusion in any future Afghan government. Still, flagging public and political support for the Afghan War, and the death of bin Laden, have made the Obama administration more inclined to seek a negotiated settlement than at any time before. Marc Grossman, the new U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, has been told to “concentrate his efforts” on such an goal. One of the key questions surrounding talks with Taliban remains the level of Pakistani involvement. Islamabad has demanded a seat, if not a managing role, at any negotiation; however, the “administration now thinks that talks with the [Afghan Taliban] and other groups do not necessarily require Pakistan’s cooperation.” A senior administration official says the Taliban “want to establish their own office so they can get out from under the Pakistanis.” (Washington Post, May 16, 2011)

RUSSIA BALKS AT INDIA’S FIGHTER SNUB
It turns out that the United States was not the only country miffed to have lost out on India’s lucrative, $10 billion contract for 126 Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). When India shortlisted the French Rafale fighter and the European Eurofighter Typhoon this spring as the two finalists for the massive fighter deal, Washington grumbled that the two American jets on offer, the F-16 and F-18, were technically superior to the European jets.

However, Moscow has responded with even greater vociferousness to the news that its MiG-35 fighter jet was not among the finalists, calling off a joint naval exercise with India at the last minute in a sign of protest. In April, five Indian Navy warships made a “port call” at Vladivostok to take part in the long-planned exercises, before being sent home by the Russians on short notice. India had deep military ties to the Soviet Union during the Cold War and Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier, by some estimates. However, Moscow has watched warily as India has expanded its military ties with Western powers, including the United States, and India has voiced increasing frustration with Russia’s reliability as a military partner, particularly regarding the provision of spare parts. The editor of Moscow Defence Brief Monthly, Mikhail Barabanov, chastised Moscow for calling off the naval exercises with India, deeming the decision “simply stupid.” Barabanov, noting that the Russian and Indian air forces have never conducted joint drills (while India conducts many with the U.S.), added “other nations wait in the queue to develop military interaction with India” while “Moscow is not behaving seriously.” (The Pioneer, June 2, 2011)

PAK TO CHINA: BUILD NAVAL BASE AT GWADAR
In a move that has raised eyebrows across Asia and in Washington, Pakistan has asked China to build a military naval base at its deep water port of Gwadar, in the restive Baluchistan province. China, Pakistan’s “all-weather ally,” has been active at Gwadar for years, building and financing over 80% of the deep water port there that became operational in 2008. China’s efforts building the commercial port at Gwadar had already sparked concern across Asia – not least in New Delhi -- about its rising profile in the Indian Ocean (some consider the port to be the “crown jewel” in China’s “String of Pearls”). The possibility of China building a military base at Gwadar – what would be the PLA Navy’s first overseas military base – is sure to raise even more alarm in the region. Which is perhaps why the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately denied any such request had been made. Pakistan had earlier announced that China would also take over operation of the commercial port from its current operator, the Singapore Port Authority, but China has not confirmed that request either. Pakistan has been promoting Gwadar as a major hub and transit route for traffic in and out of energy-rich central Asia. (Financial Times, May 22, 2011)