South Asia Security Monitor: No. 278

PAKISTAN LOOKS TO REFORM FATA GOVERNANCE… SORT OF
The Pakistani government is taking modest steps to reform the outdated and undemocratic political system that governs the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, seven semi-autonomous tribal “agencies” that hug the Pakistani border with Afghanistan and serve as a base for the Taliban and other militant outfits. Currently, each of the seven sections is governed by an appointed “political agent” while political parties are barred, there are no state police, and the court system is nothing more than a series of tribal councils or Taliban tribunals. A colonial-era criminal code allows for collective punishment, while political agents can suspend payments to government employees or deny bail. Pakistan’s current president, Asif Ali Zardari, promised sweeping reforms years ago, but only now has introduced a series of relatively modest measures, including allowing political parties to campaign in the FATA and “relaxing dated laws that hold entire tribes accountable for one person’s crime.” However, many doubt the reforms go far enough to address the concerns of FATA residents, whose alienation from Pakistan proper has helped fuel their support for the Taliban and other militant groups. Moreover, the new measures may be overshadowed by another “presidential ordinance” issued in June that gives the military “virtually unbridled powers to act as judge, jury and executioner for anyone held on charges of terrorism in the tribal areas.” (Express Tribune, July 29, 2011; Washington Post, August 17, 2011)

CHINA UPGRADES MISSILES, INDIA UPGRADES MISSILE DEFENSE
Coinciding with news that China has upgraded its missile systems from aging, liquid-fuelled CSS-2 missiles to its newest, solid-fuel, nuclear-tipped, CSS-5 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, India has announced it will have a fully-deployed missile defense shield (capable of protecting a city like New Delhi) within three years. India has been working on an anti-ballistic missile system since 1996. It relies on endo- and exo-atmospheric missile interceptors, each of which have undergone a series of successful tests in recent years. Two radar systems have been developed in coordination with an Israeli and a French company and are already being “sited.” India is confident the system will be effective against China’s CSS-5 as well as Pakistan’s Shaheen and Ghauri nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, although it is likely to prove ineffective against China’s longest-range Intercontinental ballistic missiles. India has not divulged plans for the deployment of the first system, but many suspect the first iteration will be deployed around New Delhi, which is relatively close to both the Pakistani and Chinese borders, with additional cities receiving variants of the system in the years to come. (Business Standard, August 29, 2011)

INDIA AND CHINA SPAR AT SEA
India and China have had their first naval confrontation, albeit a minor one, in the South China Sea after an Indian warship sailing 45 nautical miles off the coast of Vietnam was “warned” by a Chinese vessel in July. India’s INS Airavat was shuttling from the Vietnamese port of Nha Trang to the northern city of Hai Phong when it was contacted on an open channel by a voice warning that the Airavat was “entering Chinese waters” and asking it to explain its presence. There were no Chinese ships on radar or on the horizon, and the Indian ship continued its journey unhindered. India’ foreign ministry had little comment, but confirmed the incident took place, while an Indian official told the Financial Times that “Any navy in the world has full freedom to transit through these waters or high seas. For any country to proclaim ownership or question the right to passage by any other nation is unacceptable.” The statement brings India’s position into alignment with that of Vietnam and other countries in ASEAN, which have found themselves frequently sparring with an increasingly assertive China over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. (Financial Times, August 31, 2011)

MAOISTS STILL THREAT #1
India’s home minister, P. Chidambaram, has reaffirmed what Prime Minister Manmohan Singh first said in 2009: that despite all the threats facing India from Islamist radicals, left-wing extremism remained the government’s most “formidable challenge.” Speaking at a workshop on development strategies, Chidambaram noted that terrorist attacks inside India had claimed 26 civilian lives in the first eight months of 2011, while violence by insurgents in India’s restive northeast had killed 27 and the ongoing unrest in Kashmir had claimed 46 lives. However, deaths at the hands of left-wing extremists – synonymous for the Maoist or “Naxalite” insurgency that has spread throughout much of India’s central and eastern “tribal belt” – amounted to 297, including 109 security personnel, in the first eight months of this year. The Home Minister also disclosed that the central government had now deployed 71 battalions of security forces to Maoist-hit states, more than double the 31 deployed in 2008. Chidambaram condemned the insurgents’ brutal ideology and their desire to replace democracy with a “dictatorship of the proletariat” but insisted the government was open to talks if the Maoists would come to the table. (Times of India, September 13, 2011)