INDIA SUCCESSFULLY TESTS NEW IRBM
On April 19, India reached a landmark in its ballistic missile development with a successful launch of its most advanced and farthest-reaching intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), the Agni V. The nuclear-capable Agni V, with a 3,100 mile range (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles require a 3,400 mile range) was launched from Wheeler Island off India’s eastern coast and reportedly landed in the Indian Ocean somewhere between the southern tips of Australia and Africa. The 51-foot three-stage missile, which unlike earlier Indian missiles can be launched from mobile platforms, puts all of China, including Beijing and Shanghai, comfortably within the reach of India’s nuclear arsenal. Indian officials insisted the missile test was not directed at any one country, and China’s Foreign Ministry downplayed the launch, insisting China and India were “not competitors but partners.” However, Pakistan, India’s other strategic competitor, is already well within the range of India’s existing missile platforms, including the two-stage 2,200 mile Agni IV, tested last November. The Agni V, which can carry MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) warheads, could be fully operational as early as 2014. (New York Times April 19, 2012; Times of India November 17, 2011)
FEARING AFGHAN WITHDRAWAL, RUSSIA LOOKS TO HELP NATO
With the deadline for U.S. and Coalition forces to withdraw from Afghanistan approaching, Russia has grown increasingly vocal about its concerns of a destabilization of the region after 2014. Moscow was a staunch opponent of the Taliban when it seized power in Kabul in the 1990s and has been a wary supporter of NATO’s efforts, opening its territory to the Coalition in 2009 to provide alternative supply routes into Afghanistan. This week, just days after President-elect Vladamir Putin called NATO a “relic of the Cold war,” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned the alliance against a premature withdrawal from Afghanistan. “As long as Afghanistan is not able to ensure by itself the security of the country, the artificial timelines of withdrawal are not correct and they should not be set.”
Underlying Russian fears about a return to chaos in Afghanistan, Duma member Andrei Klimov warned a U.S. withdrawal “would be a very unfavorable development for Russia… We are watching the [approaching deadline] with deep wariness and perplexity.” Underlying its fears, Russia has ramped up cooperation with NATO in recent years, helping train some 2,000 Afghan anti-narcotics agents and signing a $367 million contract to supply Afghanistan with 21 Russian Mi-17 attack helicopters, paid for by the U.S. There is now talk of Russia offering the use of an advanced Russian airbase at Ulyanovsk as a “transit hub” for NATO supplies – a proposal that has been attacked from Russian communists and nationalists. (Christian Science Monitor April 20, 2012)
PAKISTAN ISSUES NEW GUIDELINES TO RESUME TIES WITH U.S.
Pakistan’s parliament has passed a resolution outlining a set of new “guidelines” or conditions to allow for a normalization of U.S.-Pakistan relations after bilateral ties were crippled by a series of disputes in 2011. Pakistan suspended the use of NATO supply routes into Afghanistan last November after an accidental U.S. strike on a Pakistani border post killed two dozen Pakistani soldiers. The guidelines call for an end to U.S. drone strikes and raise the fees on the U.S. and NATO for shipping supplies through Pakistan. In 2011, Washington relied on Pakistan to ship 30% of its supplies to Afghanistan – down from 90% at the start of the Afghan war – and has been steadily increasing the capacity of the alternative Northern Distribution Network through Central Asia to hedge against Pakistani supply disruptions. However, shipping supplies through the NDN can cost over twice as much ($7,000 per container to $17,00 per container). The two sides are still negotiating an arrangement on drone strikes, as the U.S. has repeatedly insisted a full halt to operations was not in the cards. The guidelines demand a cessation of all drone strikes but do not make it a prerequisite to re-opening NATO’s supply lines (AP April 12, 2012)
TALIBAN OPEN SPRING OFFENSIVE WITH BRAZEN ATTACK
The Taliban kicked off their annual “spring offensive” with a series of brazen and deadly attacks in Kabul that yielded few tactical gains but carry strategic significance as a symbol of their ongoing capabilities and reach. The attack involved 36 insurgents striking multiple targets across Kabul that precipitated an 18-hour gun battle in which nearly all the insurgents, eight members of the Afghan security forces, and four civilians were killed. Another 65 were reported injured. The insurgents used heavy machine guns and rocket grenades in an attack that the Taliban insists had been planned for months. Afghan security forces took the lead in repelling the attack, though NATO attack helicopters were reportedly pressed into service during the final assault. U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker placed the blame squarely on the Haqqani Network, a local and particularly well-organized Taliban ally. “We know where their leadership lives and we know where these plans are made. They’re not made in Afghanistan. They’re made in Miramshah, which is in North Waziristan, which is in Pakistan,” Crocker told reporters. “We are pressing the Pakistanis very hard on this. They really need to take action.” (Dawn News April 17, 2012; Dawn News April 19, 2012)