MUSHARRAF CAUSES STIR IN TRIP TO CHINA
Former Pakistani president and army chief, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, appears to have abandoned plans to return to home to head up a new political party on the threat of arrest for his involvement in the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007. However, that hasn’t stopped Musharraf from stirring controversy back home. In early May, Gen. Musharraf paid a visit to China, reportedly to address a meeting at the Chinese People’s Institute of International Affairs on China-Pakistan relations and the war on terrorism. Pakistani news reports suggested Musharraf was granted official protocol, despite the Pakistani government having approached Interpol for his arrest and extradition. Under fire at home for this apparent contradiction, the Pakistani embassy in Beijing was forced to clarify that the president/suspect was extended only “normal courtesies… as per the existing practice.” (First Post May 15, 2012)
INDIAN INTEREST IN THE SCO
India has in recent years expressed growing interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional grouping of Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan formed in 1999 and focused on mutual security and counterterrorism cooperation. Currently, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Mongolia enjoy “observer status” while Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are “guest invitees” in the regional grouping, which has periodically been described as an “anti-NATO” bloc or a “NATO alternative.” While Russia has been a strong proponent of Indian entry into the regional grouping, China has expressed reservations, as have smaller members Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, who have reservations about any expansion of the group. India sees closer collaboration with the SCO, and its Tashkent-based Regional Counter-Terrorism Structure, as “proving great assistance in stabilizing Afghanistan,” where India has vocally expressed its fears about the return of the Taliban to power. The group will meet in June in China, where it is not expected to issue India (or Pakistan, which also seeks membership) a formal invitation to join the group. However, India is keen on joining the organization’s annual counter-terror exercises and obtaining greater involvement in the SCO’s “routine round-the-year activities such as trade ministers’ meetings.” (The Hindu May 14, 2012)
PAK TO JOIN NATO SUMMIT, REOPEN SUPPLY LINES
The six-month impasse between the U.S. and Pakistan over the closing of Pakistani supply routes to NATO appears to have been broken. Pakistan’s border crossings into Afghanistan have been closed to NATO supplies since a U.S. airstrike along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border last November killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan’s parliament spent months debating the terms and requirements for a resumption of “normal” ties, ultimately demanding an official “apology” from the U.S. for the errant airstrike that the Obama administration was unwilling to give. However, on May 14 Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani signaled that his government had entered serious discussions with U.S. officials about reopening the supply lines. “It was important to make a point. Pakistan has made a point and now we can move on,” said Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar. The impetus appears to have been Washington’s decision to invite Pakistan to the important NATO summit being held in Chicago next week where decisions will be made about the future of the Coalition’s military and financial support to Afghanistan. Pakistan is eager to play a central role in any future Afghan political settlement or reconciliation with the Taliban, and the U.S. appears to have held out an invitation to the NATO summit until Pakistan agreed to reopen the NATO supply lines. (ABC News May 14, 2012)
INDIA REDUCES IRAN IMPORTS UNDER SANCTIONS THREAT
In an attempt to evade U.S. sanctions and hedge against the threat of instability in Iran, India has been scaling back its oil imports from the Islamic Republic. Deputy Oil Minister RPN Singh told Parliament on May 15 that India would reduce oil imports from Iran by 11 percent in the coming fiscal year (April-March), from 127.8 million barrels to 113.6 million barrels. Indian officials have been warning for months about their inability to quickly and dramatically replace Iranian oil, which accounts for over 10 percent of their total oil imports (India imports 80 percent of its oil). However, as U.S. pressure has built and a June 28 deadline approaches for Washington to certify that India (and other countries) have made significant progress in diversifying away from Iranian oil, a concerted effort has been made to reduce imports. Washington has already granted a waiver to a number of its allies, including the EU and Japan, but the State Department is signaling that India’s current initiatives may be insufficient. State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland recently told reporters in Washington, “there’s more progress to be made.” If India does not obtain a waiver, the U.S. will be open to impose “sanctions on any foreign bank or company that continues to engage in oil transactions with the Iranian central bank.” (Washington Post March 30, 2012; Washington Post May 15, 2012)