South Asia Security Monitor: No. 289

TAPI TAKES TWO STEPS FORWARD
The long-awaited and long-stalled TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) natural gas pipeline is likely to receive a significant boost on May 23, when the four participating countries are expected to sign a sales and purchase agreement during an international gas conference in Avaza, Turkmenistan. According to Turkmen officials, the 1,085-mile pipeline could carry “1 trillion cubic meters of gas over a 30-year period, or 33 billion cubic meters a year.” Construction of the pipeline is expected to cost between $10 and $12 billion and has garnered strong support from the U.S. and other western allies as a boon for stability and economic integration in South and Central Asia, and as an alluring alternative to the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline.

Turkmenistan -- with potentially the fourth largest gas reserves in the world behind Russia, Iran and Qatar -- would like to diversify away from selling gas almost exclusively to Russia. The pipeline still faces hurdles in the form of security concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan while India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have yet to finalize details about volumes, price, and transit fees. However, the pipeline’s prospects look brighter than at any time since the idea of a TAPI pipeline was first floated in the 1990s. India’s cabinet last week allowed to GAIL Ltd, a state-run gas firm, to sign a purchase agreement with Turkmenistan and the Indian government said on May 17 the pipeline would be operational in 2018, with India and Pakistan each getting 38 million cubic meters per day (mcmd), with a further 14 mcmd going to Afghanistan. An Indian Oil Ministry official said the transit fee had been fixed at 50 cents per million British thermal units. (Reuters May 21, 2012)

TOP SRI LANKAN GENERAL FREED FROM PRISON
The Sri Lankan government has released former army chief and presidential candidate Sarath Fonseka from prison after a two year sentence. Fonseka is credited with leading the Sri Lankan military’s decisive victory over the Tamil Tigers in 2009, ending one of Asia’s longest and bloodiest internal conflicts which claimed an estimated 80,000 lives during 25 years of conflict. Fonseka later challenged current President Mahinda Rajapaksa in presidential elections in 2010. After losing the election, Fonseka was court-martialed and imprisoned, in what the U.S. denounced as a politically motivated charge. In November of last year, Fonseka was sentenced to an additional three years for “allegedly implicating the defense secretary and president’s brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa in war crimes” – an extension that was subsequently suspended. Upon his release, Fonseka was greeted by thousands of cheering supporters and pledged to carry on challenging the government. “I will sacrifice my life to serve the people of this country. My courage will not be shattered even if they detain me for 10 years and I will not stop performing my duty.” (Washington Post May 21, 2012)

NATO DECIDING AFGHAN FATE IN CHICAGO
With pressure building to wind down the war in Afghanistan, NATO held an all-important summit meeting in Chicago on May 20-21 to decide the fate of the alliance’s commitment to Afghanistan. The 28-member alliance reached an agreement to endorse the U.S.-backed strategy that will see foreign combat troops exit the country by 2014, although command of all combat operations will be handed over to Afghan forces sooner, by mid-2013. A side story to the conference was the ongoing deadlock between the U.S. and Pakistan about the reopening of Pakistani supply lines into Afghanistan for NATO forces; routes that have been closed since an accidental airstrike killed 24 Pakistani troops last November. The U.S. had hoped to secure an agreement to reopen the lines before the NATO summit, and President Obama refused to meet with Pakistani President Asif Zardari when it became clear a deal would not be reached. Instead, NATO diplomats have turned to Uzbekistan, who they hope to sign a framework agreement with soon on allowing “reverse transit” of NATO supplies. The U.S. is also searching for financial commitments from allies to fund Afghanistan’s security forces beyond 2014 at an estimated cost of $4.1 billion annually. Washington hopes its allies will contribute $1.3 billion annually to that effort, and has secured pledges from Britain and Australia for roughly $100 million each and $20 million from Turkey. (Reuters May 21, 2012)

INDIA DROPS CHARGES AGAINST KARMAPA
An Indian court has dropped controversial charges against a high-ranking Tibetan spiritual leader close to the Dalai Lama. The subject of the charges was the 26 year old Karmapa Lama, also known as Ogyen Trinley Dorje, who was charged with criminal conspiracy after police seized $1.4 million in unregistered foreign currency, including Chinese yuan, from the Karmapa’s compound in January of last year. The Tibetan leader argued the cash was collected from remittances sent by thousands of Buddhist followers from across the world. Some in India suspect the Karmapa, who some have tapped as a successor to the Dalai Lama, of having close ties to Beijing. He fled across the Himalayas to India from China in 2000, but he remains recognized by Beijing as the 17th incarnation of his spiritual lineage. In the end the assistant district attorney in Himachal Pradesh, the Indian state where the Tibetan government in exile is located, moved to drop the charges “in public interest and the administration of justice” since the Karmapa is an internationally respected religious leader. (Hindustan Times May 21, 2012; FirstPost May 22; 2012)