AFGHAN TALIBAN LOSES SENIOR LEADER
A U.S. drone strike has killed a senior Afghan Taliban commander, his deputy, and eight others in Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas. The target of the attack, Maulvi Nazir, was one of the most senior militant commanders affiliated with the Afghan Taliban and headed a network of thousands of militants in Waziristan. Though drone strikes in the tribal areas are common, the attack on Nazir came as a surprise, as Nazir and other Afghan Taliban commanders are generally viewed more favorably by the Pakistani government; unlike the Pakistani Taliban which targets the Pakistani state, the Afghan Taliban have traditionally focused their attacks on targets inside Afghanistan. The Pakistani government has generally tried to avoid provoking hostilities with the Afghan Taliban, and the ISI is suspected of maintaining close links to the militant networks. Pakistan has in the past often encouraged drone strikes on Pakistani Taliban commanders, but it is unclear to what degree Islamabad was involved in or aware of the strike on Nazir, and to what degree this could strain relations between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistani military. (Pakistan The News, January 3, 2013)
PAKISTANI TALIBAN OFFERS TRUCE
Meanwhile, the Pakistani Taliban made a “peace offer” to the Pakistani government, proposing a ceasefire in return for the Pakistani government adopting Sharia law, changing the Pakistani constitution, revising the country’s foreign policy and ending its cooperation with the West in the war in Afghanistan. The chief of the Pakistani Taliban, Hakimullah Mehsud, confirmed the truce proposal. The country’s all-powerful military was scheduled to discuss the truce offer a meeting of their corps commanders on January 4, but Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani suggested the decision to accept or reject the proposal would fall to the civilian government. “It is for the government to decide whether or not to hold dialogue with the militants.” He did, however, offer an indirect vote of support for negotiations, saying, “Political leaders should capitalize on the situation” created by the military’s counterterrorism successes. Previous peace deals with the Taliban, nearly all of which were negotiated directly by the army, ended in failure. (Pakistan Dawn, January 3, 2013)
MYANMAR POUNDS KACHIN REBELS
The Myanmar government has admitted to using airstrikes to target ethnic Kachin rebels near the China border in an operation that is tarnishing the reformist image of the new government in Nyapyidaw. The United States, which has lifted a series of sanctions on the government following sweeping political reforms by the ruling junta last year has criticized the airstrikes as an “extremely troubling” escalation of the conflict. The government is locked in a long-running ethnic conflict with the Kachin Independence Army, which is seeking independence for majority-Kachin. The Kachin are “the only major ethnic rebel group that has not reached a cease-fire agreement” with the government. President Thein Sein, a former general, has publicly appealed to the army to end its offensive in the borderland areas. (New York Times, January 2, 2013)
EXAMINING PAKISTAN'S TACTICAL NUKES
Are Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons creating a new security dilemma in South Asia? That question was asked by Shashank Joshi in a recent article for The Diplomat. Pakistan is developing what several experts have called the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world. “Pakistan is developing a new generation of tactical nuclear weapons that target not Indian cities, but Indian military formations on the battlefield,” Joshi writes. “The idea is that smaller nuclear weapons, used on Pakistani soil, would stop invading Indian forces in their tracks.” Joshi judges that Pakistan will likely “continue to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons” as the gap in conventional military spending between India and Pakistan continues to grow. And this course will “increase friction with those nations who count themselves allies of Pakistan and generate new risks quite out of proportion to anything the country might gain.” (The Diplomat, January 2, 2013)
Want these sent to your inbox?
Subscribe