South Asia Security Monitor: No. 344

MODI INVITES SHARIF TO INDIA
Narendra Modi has taken a bold step by inviting the heads of state from all the countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to India to attend his inaugural ceremony. And in a historic first, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has accepted his invitation. Pakistan's High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit said that he hopes for a comprehensive bilateral engagement with India: "Peace is in our mutual interest... In the past, we have seen pre-conditions did not work, nor can they work in the future." Basit's dig referred to Delhi's longstanding "pre-condition" that Pakistan do more to crack down on terrorism before progress can be made on outstanding bilateral issues like Kashmir. (Indian Express, May 19, 2014; First Post, May 19, 2014)

CHINA MAY BE "BIGGEST LOSER" IN INDIAN ELECTION
With business interests bullish on the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India, China could be poised to lose a considerable share of direct foreign investment to neighbor-rival. Whereas the Chinese government is seen as becoming increasingly hostile to foreign investors, Modi ran on a platform of economic reform, job creation, and anti-corruption. His defense of free market principles has already earned him nicknames such as "SuperModi" and the "Margaret Thatcher of India." In the past eight months, with Modi's win seen as increasingly likely, foreigners have bought more than $16 billion in equities and bonds, and the rupee has begun to gain on the dollar. Walmart has already jumped on the bandwagon, and plans on opening 50 new stores in India. (Forbes, May 18, 2014)

MILITANTS THREATEN INDIAN AFTER MODI ELECTION
An Islamic extremist group with suspected links to Al-Qaeda released a video calling for militant organizations across the Middle East and South Asia to attack India and Indian overseas interests. The threats came as the Bharatiya Janata Party and its prime minister candidate, Narendra Modi, won a historic election in Delhi. The group who released the video is thought to be located in the semi-autonomous border zone of western Pakistan.

As if on cue, on May 23, three heavily armed gunmen attacked the Indian consulate in Afghanistan's Herat province using machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. Most of the fighters were killed in the attack, which resulted in no Indian casualties, and no group has claimed responsibility for the attack as of yet. (London Guardian, May 20, 2014;Associated Press, May 23, 2014)

AL-QAEDA HIDING TRUE STRENGTH IN AFGHANISTAN
Al-Qaeda has been hiding their "true" strength in Afghanistan, say Pentagon officials, who believe the group is waiting for the U.S.-led Coalition to withdraw from Afghanistan later this year before an offensive. As terrorist attacks have increased in recent years, lawmakers and former senior intelligence officials have raised concerns that al-Qaeda controls more territory around the world than ever before. Despite the loss of Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders, Al-Qaeda's strength is drawn from their extensive links to other terrorist groups and "deep bench" from within. David Sedney, a former senior Pentagon official responsible for Afghanistan and Pakistan, notes: "When the State Department's annual report on terrorism, released in April, shows an increase from 2012 to 2013 of 43 percent in worldwide terrorist attacks, it is important to ask whether policy views of al Qaeda as a spent or terminally weakened force are accurate." (LondonTelegraph, May 21, 2014; Washington Times, May 21, 2014)