PAKISTAN FINALLY LAUNCHES MAJOR OFFENSIVE
After a brazen attack on the Karachi airport this month, Pakistan launched a long-awaited military operation in the tribal region of North Waziristan, long considered the principal stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban and affiliated militant groups. The Pakistani military targeted militant hide-outs and claims to have killed hundreds of fighters in the first days of fighting. For years the US has criticized Pakistan for inaction and the Pakistani government has pursued a myriad of failed peace talks with the Taliban in an effort to avoid such an offensive.
The Taliban has pledged to respond but so far only six Pakistani soldiers have been killed in a retaliation boming. To date, the offensive has relied on air strikes, but a ground offensive may soon follow and Pakistan has doubled its forces in North Waziristan to around 80,000 in preparation. Analysts expect the military to face significant difficulties, including distinguishing the Taliban from regular citizens, where the group is deeply entrenched in tribal alliances. Pakistan is giving the region’s estimated two million people several days to evacuate the area before the ground offensive begins. (Reuters, June 17, 2014; Associated Press, June 16, 2014)
MODI'S FIRST TRIP: BHUTAN
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his foreign policy tour in Bhutan, a tiny Himalayan kingdom wedged between India and China but heavily under Delhi's influence. While there, Modi made it clear he would like to continue strengthening relations with all India's neighbors, indirectly referencing China and Pakistan. India is Bhutan's largest supplier of aid and infrastructure, and Modi announced a number of concessions including the exemption of Bhutan from any ban on exports of milk powder, wheat, edible oil, pulses and non-basmati rice while affirming India's commitment to a free-trade agreement. The Prime Minister also laid the foundation of a 600-megawatt hydroelectric power project and offered scholarships to Bhutanese students to study in India. (New York Times, June 16, 2014; Outlook India, June 16, 2014)
AFGHAN VOTERS BRAVE THREATS FROM TALIBAN
Voters cast their ballots for the presidential election in Afghanistan last weekend. The Taliban threatened voters with violence, but the turnout rates were relatively high among both women and men. The first election occurred on April 5 but neither of the two leading contenders, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, was able to cross the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. The Taliban managed to disrupt a few polling sites, and a total of 21 people were killed and 100 injured, less than in the last round of voting. In one particularly gruesome act of violence, 11 voters had their fingers cut off in the province of Herat by Taliban rebels on motorbikes. The preliminary results will be announced July 2, but then will enter a three-week independent verification process. (NBC, June 16, 2014)
PM SHARIF CALLS ON KARZAI TO SEAL BORDER
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has called on Afghan President Hamid Karzai to seal the common border between Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to block the escape of pro-Taliban forces during Pakistan's long-awaited military offensive in the militant haven of North Waziristan. However, there are concerns that sealing the border will affect the thousands of civilian refugees looking to flee the conflict zone, which abuts the Af-Pak border. More than 2,000 refugees have already entered Afghanistan. The deputy interior minister of Afghanistan, General Mohammad Ayoub Salangi, says that “security-wise we have taken all measures so that the insurgents could not enter our soil." (Khaama Press, June 17, 2014; The Hindu, June 17, 2014)
AFGHAN CANDIDATES PROMOTE RELATIONS WITH INDIA
The Indian government has promised to work closely with whomever is elected as the next Afghan president. Both Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani consider themselves friends of India and both expressed support for the recent election victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan Amar Sinha said bilateral relations will strengthen and “policy towards Afghanistan will transcend political differences and each government work very closely in India as well as here,” noting that their strategic partnership remains key to securing a peaceful region. Polling in Afghanistan frequently registers India as the foreign country viewed most positively by the Afghan people. (Economic Times of India, June 17, 2014)