As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, the human and economic tolls of the conflict continue to mount. Although the Kremlin refuses to publish official casualty statistics, independent analyses and regional data reveal an alarming trend: Russia’s outlying regions are dying off at far higher rates than the rest of the country. These same regions power Russia’s resource economy through oil, natural gas, and timber production. Moscow’s recruitment policies and resource-dependent economic model are effectively turning the edges of the Federation into both its economic engine and human reservoir.
This report finds that the war in Ukraine has accelerated the population drain in these outlying extractive regions, weakening the very areas that sustain Russia’s resource exports. As working-age men are killed or sent to the front, vital industries will face increasingly severe labor shortages. It outlines why replacing these lost workers will prove difficult, as rising xenophobia and new legal restrictions push migrants away while improving economic conditions in Central Asia reduce the incentive for foreign workers to seek employment in Russia.
