On March 10, AFPC convened a Capitol Hill conference of leading experts to examine Iranian ideology, strategic culture, and foreign policy objectives. Speakers included Ali Alfoneh of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the American Enterprise Institute’s J. Matthew McGinnis, and Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute. AFPC Vice President Ilan Berman served as the moderator.
In his presentation, Alfoneh outlined the structure of the Iranian political system, emphasizing the inherent competition between the technocratic bureaucracy headed by President Hassan Rouhani and the ideological stalwarts of the country’s Revolutionary Guards – and explained how the latter remains the arbiter of Iranian politics writ large.
Eisenstadt offered an insightful analysis of Iran’s changing strategic culture and how it will influence future U.S. policy. Iran aims to avoid and deter conventional warfare, he said, preferring instead to rely on propaganda and proxy operations in order to alter the regional balance of power in its favor.
Iran, McInnis argued, has made such progress on its nuclear program that the current nuclear deal is destined to be “too little, too late,” while the attendant sanctions relief Iran will receive will help to ensure the longterm survival of the regime.
Finally, Doran discussed Iran’s strategy of “exporting the revolution” and noted Iran’s increasing strategic activity throughout the region, which comports with the Islamic Republic’s view of itself as a global power.
