Sixty-eight years ago, the Soviet Union shocked the world by launching Sputnik 1 and igniting the space race. Today, new Sputnik moments loom on the horizon, and the stakes are far higher. The country that emerges as a preeminent space power will guarantee its own economic and national security, and shape the “rules of the road” that govern the international community for decades to come.
Who will that be? In the absence of strong leadership on space, China is poised to surpass the United States. That the federal government was shut down during Space Week (which ran from Oct. 4-10) is symbolic of a rudderless American space strategy. Meanwhile, over the past six months, China began deploying an AI “supercomputing” satellite constellation and, together with Russia, unveiled plans to construct a Lunar nuclear power plant to support their planned International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Beijing, in other words, has a clear vision for space and is executing it.
Dr. Namrata Goswami, a leading China space analyst, has eloquently outlined how the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic prioritization of reusable rockets, orbital logistics, and Lunar industrialization may allow the PRC to outpace America in space before too long.
These factors matter. Reusable rockets are the principal reason why the U.S. remains the leader in space launch. But that advantage may be slipping. Today, SpaceX, the private corporation of billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, out-launches not only every other company in the space economy, but every country as well. That volume is a double-edged sword; now that the U.S. has effectively lowered the barrier for entry into the space market, some analysts warn that America has only a handful of years before China matches this output.
Indeed, signs of this are already emerging. Over the last five years, Beijing has demonstrated in-space refueling, tested a fractional orbital bombardment system, and launched its own crewed space station. Moreover, China has also landed and returned samples from the far side of the Moon—a feat that the U.S. has never accomplished.
What will the world look like if China continues unchecked and is allowed to accomplish its planned space objectives over the next three decades? In our new book, Space Shock: 18 Threats That Will Define Space Power, we examine scenarios that could leave the U.S. perpetually reacting instead of leading.
Here, a number of potential crisis scenarios stand out. For instance, how would America respond if an adversary covertly disabled a U.S. satellite, or deployed an entire constellation of anti-satellite weapons? Alternatively, what would happen if a Chinese company committed corporate sabotage and interfered with a private U.S. satellite network in orbit? Each of these possibilities requires rapid attribution, a credible retaliatory response, and allied coordination. At present, however, the United States lacks anything resembling such a crisis playbook.
Another looming area of competition is energy. While most of the world is focused on renewables, China is investing in space-based solar power—systems that could beam electricity from orbit—to fuel its planned $10 trillion-per-year Earth-Moon economic zone. If Beijing succeeds in scaling this capability and exports the resulting energy to client states, it will gain leverage over global power grids comparable to OPEC’s present-day hold on oil.
There is also strategic real estate up for grabs: the Moon. Unlike on Earth, the Moon has large amounts of Helium-3, used for quantum computing and nuclear fusion. Moreover, the Lunar surface contains caches of ice—usable for water and potential rocket fuel (in the form of hydrogen and oxygen)—and mostly accessible in its polar regions. Whoever occupies those regions first will control the logistics hub of the Solar System.
Crisis planning is also necessary. Today, we have space stations, but tomorrow we may have space hotels. There will inevitably be commercial space flight accidents, and rescue missions. Yet no federal agency—NASA, the Space Force, or the FAA—currently has clear authority, or even its own spacecraft, to conduct such rescue or recovery. From orbital collisions to asteroid defense, America’s ability to respond in space will define its leadership writ large.
The private sector remains our strongest asset, but even that advantage is fleeting. President Trump’s recent executive order to streamline launch licensing is a positive step. Still, deregulation alone is not a strategy. The nation needs a prioritized investment strategy and a national vision. Space represents a strategic investment opportunity. If the United States fails to lead there, it won’t just lose prestige. It will lose prosperity, deterrence, and control of the global commons.
As we argue in Space Shock, the next Sputnik moment, in other words, is coming. The only question is whether it will catch America by surprise, or be catalyzed by our innovation.
