How China Could Turn the Moon Into the Next South China Sea

Key Points and Summary – China is no longer focused only on low-Earth orbit. Beijing now treats the Moon as strategic terrain, pushing toward a permanent base by the mid-2030s and space dominance by 2045.

- Chinese planners see lunar ice, metals, and especially helium-3 as levers over future energy, tech, and manufacturing.

- The danger isn’t just economic: under the guise of “safety zones,” China could carve out de facto territorial claims, replaying its South China Sea tactics in space.

- Without a clear U.S. strategy, investment, and allied coordination, Washington risks ceding the lunar high ground to an authoritarian rival.

South China Sea in Space? China Has Set Its Sights On The Moon

Space is no longer a distant frontier for exploration. It has become the next arena of international competition.

Today, much of the discussion about the militarization of space surrounds concerns of an increasingly congested low-Earth orbit (LEO). But China has quietly advanced far beyond these discussions. Beijing has turned its attention to the Lunar surface, and formulated a clear strategy for the Moon and beyond. Through its space program, Beijing is signaling an effort to control the key terrain, resources, infrastructure, and logistics that will enable the next century of space power.

Meanwhile, as scholars have pointed out, the United States currently lacks a coherent long-term national strategy for competing in this new domain.

NASA no longer possesses its own crewed launch system and has lost roughly20% of its workforce since January. The U.S. Space Force, charged with protecting American interests in space, similarly does not have its own shuttle and operates within the smallest budget of any service branch. Without serious investment, coordination, and vision, the U.S. risks ceding the high ground of the 21st century to a rival that routinely disregards international law and views space in territorial terms.

Nowhere is this clearer than with regard to the Moon. In June 2024, China became the first nation to return samples from the far side of the Lunar surface, an accomplishment no other spacefaring nation has so far achieved. The Chinese Academy of Sciences and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) view the Moon as a critical source of energy and materials, including aluminum, titanium, silicon, magnesium, and ice, resources that can support in-space manufacturing, refueling, and habitation. The space mining industry is projected to reach $20 billion by 2035 and Beijing aims to seize an economic advantage.

“Whoever first conquers the Moon will benefit first,” declared Ouyang Ziyuan, China’s chief Moon scientist. He calls for a “strategy based on its concrete economic power and technology level.” This is the logic of first mover advantage: whoever arrives first sets the terms.

China plans to establish a permanent Lunar research station by 2036 and aims to become the leading spacepower by 2045. In other words, China intends to be that first mover.

Two dangers emerge from China’s Lunar doctrine: the economic benefit of capitalizing on the Moon’s resources, and the subsequent monopoly on these minerals through “keep out zones.” By securing resource rich areas, especially those containing Helium-3, China could monopolize critical materials and dominate the terrestrial economy and ultimately leverage that power within supply chains.

Helium-3 is scarce on Earth but abundant in many lunar deposits, with an estimated market value of roughly $20 million per kilogram. It holds immense potential as a fuel for nuclear fusion reactors and is used for cryogenics, quantum computing, and MRI imaging. A Chinese monopoly on this element would grant Beijing unprecedented economic and strategic leverage over global technology and energy markets, ultimately enabling the Chinese Communist Party to further push illiberal values via soft power to emerging economies and international institutions.

As outlined in AFPC’s new book Space Shock: 18 Threats that Will Define Space Power, under the pretext of “safety zones” or “scientific preservation,” China could claim and restrict access to resource rich regions on the Moon.

China Copying An Old Playbook?

These zones could evolve into territorial claims, mirroring Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea.

There, China has engaged in extensive land reclamation, constructing artificial islands on disputed reefs such as Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi. These man-made outposts now hostmilitary-grade infrastructure, including runways, missile systems, and radar installations, effectively transforming international waters into fortified extensions of Chinese territory in clear violation of international law.

As the Chief Designer of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, Ye Peijan, bluntly stated: “The universe as “an ocean, the moon is the Diaoyu Islands, Mars is Huangyan Island… If we don’t go there now even though we’re capable of doing so, then we will be blamed by our descendants. If others go there, then they will take over, and you won’t be able to go even if you want to.” In short, China sees the universe through the same lens as the South China Sea: as territory to be claimed.

Space is no exception to this approach. As Chinese analyst Wang Hucheng has noted, “for countries that can never win a war with the United States by using the methods of tanks and planes, attacking an American space system may be an irresistible and most tempting choice.”

Not only could China establish “keep out zones” on the lunar surface, but U.S. space infrastructure would remain vulnerable to attack by PLA forces who claim territory on the Moon. In both arenas, China signals that any domain left unprotected or undefined becomes an opportunity to assert control.

The United States has condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea and labeled them as dangerous and destabilizing, yet the repercussions ended there.

Even with a Navy that leads in global power, the U.S. struggles to enforce international law. It may similarly struggle to do the same in space.

The stakes could not be higher. The future of the global economy and security hinges on many space factors, but the Lunar surface is at the center.

U.S. policymakers need to look to the seas to understand the skies – and to ensure that the new space race is dominated by democratic powers.