SAHEL MILITARY REGIMES CEMENT BREAK FROM ECOWAS
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have formalized their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by establishing the Alliance of Sahel States. The move was announced just ahead of an ECOWAS summit aimed at regional reconciliation. The new confederation, cemented through a defense treaty, includes plans for joint ventures such as a common investment bank and stabilization fund focusing on sectors like mining, energy, and agriculture. The countries in question also aim to create shared infrastructure to enable the free movement of citizens, relying on principles similar to those embodied by the European Union. The three countries have firmly rejected rejoining ECOWAS, citing its perceived bias toward Western interests, including its continued use of the French-backed CFA franc instead of supporting the launch of a unified West African currency.
The withdrawal poses a significant challenge to ECOWAS's cohesion and regional stability. It also comes amid growing regional uncertainty, including as a result of the recent U.S. military withdrawal from Niger. As such, it reflects a broader shift in geopolitical alignments, with the Sahel nations forging new defense partnerships, notably with Moscow, and thereby further complicating regional dynamics and reducing Western influence in the area. (Foreign Policy, July 10, 2024)
CHINA-BACKED PIPELINE PROJECT IN NIGER UNDER THREAT
A Chinese-backed pipeline poised to transform Niger into a major oil-exporting nation now faces formidable challenges due to an escalating internal security crisis and a burgeoning diplomatic dispute with neighboring Benin. The ambitious 1,930-kilometer pipeline, which stretches from Niger's Agadem oil field to Benin's port of Cotonou, was designed to quintuple Niger's oil production under a $400 million agreement with China’s state-run petroleum company. However, the project has ground to a halt amid diplomatic tensions between Niamey and Benin, as well as recent attacks by the Patriotic Liberation Front rebel group, which is a staunch opponent of the China deal. In turn, the pipeline’s shutdown threatens to derail Niger's projected economic boom, which the World Bank had forecasted to lead Africa this year. (Associated Press, June 23, 2024)
RAMAPHOSA'S COALITION GAMBLE
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has unveiled a coalition government after the unprecedented loss of parliamentary majority by his party, the African National Congress (ANC), in May’s elections. This coalition of national unity comprises 20 ANC ministers, six from the Democratic Alliance (DA), and representatives from smaller parties. Despite initial turmoil marked by tense negotiations and allegations of constitutional breaches, the coalition has received a cautious endorsement from the country’s business community, primarily for its potential to stabilize the national economy. Key ministries such as defense, finance, and foreign affairs remain under ANC control, while the DA has been entrusted with home affairs, public works, and basic education. However, deep-seated policy differences, particularly concerning national healthcare and black economic empowerment, continue to pose challenges to political unity within the bloc. (BBC, July 1, 2024)
VIOLENCE DEEPENS CRISIS IN BURKINA FASO
The insurgency in Burkina Faso has plunged that nation into a dire humanitarian crisis, marked by staggering levels of displacement and pervasive violence that has severed access to aid in 40 cities. The insurgency has escalated into one of the world's most significant (albeit largely ignored) conflicts, resulting in a death toll reaching into the thousands and the forcible displacement of over 2 million people—nearly 10% of the country's population. President Ibrahim Traoré, who assumed office in September 2022 following a coup, now faces the task of reclaiming control over vast swaths of territory currently dominated by jihadist groups aligned with al-Qaida and ISIS. The conflict's complexity is compounded by allegations of human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings. Amid the turmoil, Burkina Faso is grappling with acute food shortages, pushing more than 2.7 million people to the brink of starvation during the lean season before the harvest. (Guardian, July 5, 2024)
WASHINGTON SEEKS NEW ALLIES AMID AFRICAN COUNTERTERRORISM SETBACKS
The U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. C.Q. Brown Jr., recently visited Botswana for an annual conference between U.S. and African military leaders, marking a significant shift in U.S. military strategy in Africa. The conference, co-hosted for the first time on African soil, underscores Washington's renewed focus on bolstering its military presence amid escalating terrorist threats and geopolitical competition on the continent, notably from Russia and China. The visit follows a series of setbacks in U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel, where longstanding partners faced political upheavals and subsequent shifts in alliances, notably Niger's recent coup and the resulting demand for the U.S. to withdraw its troops – something that has allowed Russia to expand its influence in the region. (Foreign Policy, June 27, 2024)
Want these sent to your inbox?
Subscribe
