Africa Political Monitor No. 34

Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Energy Security; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Warfare; Corruption; Resource Security; Africa; Sudan; South Africa; Turkey; West Africa

SUDAN DISPLACEMENT CRISIS WORSENS AS WAR CONTINUES
More than 10 million people, 20% of Sudan’s population, have been displaced since that country’s civil conflict began in April 2023, making it the world’s largest displacement crisis. According to the International Organization for Migration, a UN agency, more than 2.2 million people have fled to neighboring countries, while around 7.8 million have sought refuge in other parts of the Northeast African state. The conflict, initially centered on the country’s capital city of Khartoum, has spread quickly, with expansion by the rebel Rapid Support Forces displacing growing swathes of the population. (Reuters, July 16, 2024)

TURKEY SEEKS URANIUM… IN NIGER
A delegation of Turkish foreign, defense, and energy officials, led by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, recently visited Niger to secure access to the country's uranium deposits. The visit follows Niger's retraction of mining rights from Canadian and French companies in the wake of last year’s military coup, which left the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, detained. It also reflects a growing Turkish need; Russia's state-run ROSATOM is now building the country’s first nuclear power plant, and plans for additional facilities are afoot, making securing a steady uranium supply crucial. And Niger, which boasts roughly 5% of the world’s uranium resources, has emerged as an attractive option for Ankara.(Bloomberg, July 17, 2024)

AMID COUPS AND CORRUPTION, AFRICAN SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY WANES 
Support for democracy in Africa is declining following a series of military coups and amid widespread dissatisfaction with local corruption and mismanagement, according to a new Afrobarometer report. While two-thirds of people in the 30 African countries surveyed still prefer democratic governance, it marks a seven percentage point decline from a decade ago, when nearly three-quarters did. The causes are clear. Since 2020, Africa has witnessed eight successful military takeovers, predominantly in West Africa's so-called "coup belt" of nations. Concurrently, there has been an uptick in local protests against tax hikes and subsidy cuts in a number of nations, particularly among the continent’s increasingly youthful population, often targeting leadership that’s widely perceived as corrupt and unaccountable.

South Africa saw the most significant decline in support for democracy, with only 43% of citizens polled responding favorably – a 29 percentage point decrease driven by persistent unemployment, failing public services, and corruption scandals. Meanwhile, in Mali, which has been under the control of a military junta since successive coups in 2020 and 2021, only 39% favored democracy, down 23 percentage points from a decade ago, with disapproval of military rule plummeting from 70% to 18%.(Gaurdian, July 17, 2024)

SAIED ANNOUNCES RE-ELECTION BID
Tunisian President Kais Saied has announced that he will seek re-election in the North African nation’s upcoming October 6 elections, aiming "to continue the national liberation struggle." Saeid’s announcement comes amid accusations from opposition parties, many of whose leaders are imprisoned, that his government is pressuring the national judiciary to eliminate his rivals ahead of the Fall polls. Indeed, on the same day that Saied announced his re-election bid, a court sentenced opposition leader Lotfi Mraihi, a potential presidential candidate, to eight months in prison for vote buying and banned him from running for office for life. 

Saied, who dissolved parliament in 2021 and has been ruling by decree, defends these actions as necessary to combat corruption among the country’s political elite. Tunisia’s opposition, meanwhile, demands the release of imprisoned politicians and greater freedom for the media in order to ensure that the upcoming election is fair. (Reuters, July 19, 2024)