Africa Political Monitor No. 35

SUDAN PEACE TALKS COMMENCE DESPITE ABSENT PARTIES
Peace talks aimed at ending the 16-month conflict in Sudan have begun in Geneva despite the absence of representatives from either side. The Sudanese army has boycotted the parlay, stating it would not attend because the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have not met key conditions of the “Jeddah Declaration” decided upon in Saudi Arabia last year, such as withdrawing its fighters from civilian homes and public facilities. For its part, the RSF initially agreed to the talks and even sent delegates to Geneva. At the last minute, however, the rebel faction made a decision not to attend.

The current talks are the latest in a series of attempts to bring an end to the crisis in Sudan, which has already claimed over 15,000 lives and displaced more than 10 million. Despite the absence of the principals, the Biden administration – the leading force in the talks – remains determined to press on with the gathering, which delegates from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the African Union, and the UN are attending. (BBC, August 14, 2024)

[EDITOR’S NOTE: In the latest development, Sudan’s government has announced that it would send a delegation to Cairo for discussions with U.S. and Egyptian officials. However, it has maintained that it would not participate in the Geneva talks unless the terms of the Jeddah Agreement are in fact implemented.]

MALI, NIGER SEVER TIES WITH UKRAINE AFTER WAGNER GROUP DEATHS
Recent events have sparked a diplomatic crisis between Ukraine and several West African nations, notably Mali and Niger. Last month, deadly clashes in northern Mali involving Russian Wagner mercenaries and Malian soldiers led to the death of 84 Wagner fighters and 47 Malian troops, marking one of the Russian mercenary outfit’s heaviest defeats in Africa. The conflict escalated when a Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson suggested that the responsible Tuareg rebels had received critical information to carry out the attack, leading Mali and Niger to sever diplomatic ties with Kyiv in protest.

Russia has accused Ukraine of opening a "second front" in Africa by allegedly supporting terrorist groups in countries that are allied with Moscow. Ukraine has denied any involvement, and condemned the diplomatic break as shortsighted. The rift has extended to other West African nations as well, with Senegal summoning Ukraine's ambassador over similar remarks. The unfolding diplomatic row comes amid significant geopolitical shifts, as Ukraine is seeking to broaden international support, particularly in the Global South, while Russia attempts to maintain and expand its influence in Africa. (CNN, July 29, 2024; Reuters, August 6, 2024; Al-Jazeera, August 7, 2024)

SOMALIA-ETHIOPIA TALKS SHOW PROGRESS
A second round of negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia over a contested Ethiopian port deal with Somaliland has ended with no resolution. However, the Turkish-mediated talks have nonetheless produced a step forward in the conflict, with Ethiopian and Somalian ministers both expressing hope for an eventual agreement between the two countries. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that there was now "convergence on some major principles," and that the number of problems covered in the second round of negotiations had expanded dramatically from the first. The goal of the Ankara talks has been to mend the strained relationship between the two East African countries, which worsened in January when Somaliland agreed to lease 20 kilometers of its coastline to Ethiopia in return for the latter’s recognition of its independence. Somalia declared the arrangement unlawful and responded by threatening to deport hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somaliland as well as expelling the Ethiopian ambassador. (Reuters, August 13, 2024)

LANDMARK TRIAL FINDS LRA COMMANDER GUILTY OF CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY
In a groundbreaking ruling, the Ugandan High Court has found Thomas Kwoyelo, a former leader of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), guilty of 44 counts of crimes against humanity. The historic case was the first of its kind to be heard by the High Court's special division dedicated to international crimes. Thousands of Ugandans watched live as the trial unfolded in Gulu, a northern city deeply scarred by the LRA's decades-long brutal insurgency across Uganda and neighboring countries. Authorities initially arrested Kwoyelo in March 2009 in the DRC, two years after he fled Uganda. In 2011, Kwoyelo stood trial before the International Crimes Division, but the Supreme Court ordered his release under amnesty terms. The prosecution subsequently challenged this decision, leading to Kwoyelo's re-arrest and the current proceedings. (Al-Jazeera, August 13, 2024)

FRANCO-ALGERIAN TENSIONS RISE OVER WESTERN SAHARA DISPUTE
International tensions over the French recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara have escalated, following the public dissemination of a letter from French President Emmanuel Macron to Moroccan King Mohammed VI expressing Paris's support for the kingdom’s plan to offer limited autonomy to the territory. In the July letter, Macron called the move the "only basis" for resolving the conflict, an unpopular sentiment among Algerian leaders. The publication of the correspondence led Algeria to begin blocking deportations of Algerian citizens from France, following an earlier decision to recall its ambassador.

France’s decision underscores the shifting status of what was once a “frozen conflict.” Morocco, which annexed Western Sahara in 1975, now controls around 80 percent of the region, while neighboring Algeria backs the Polisario Front, a radical leftist movement which rejects Moroccan control and advocates for complete independence for the territory. Morocco's economic proposals to France, which include access to vital minerals and renewable energy projects in the Western Sahara, experts say, lie behind France's recent shift in policy. Algeria, the third-largest gas supplier to the EU, has not yet said if it will renounce its commercial agreements with France in response. (Foreign Policy, August 14, 2024)