RUSSIA BEGINS FINAL WITHDRAWAL FROM ITS SYRIAN NAVAL BASE…
Satellite imagery confirms accelerating efforts by Russia to withdraw naval forces from the port of Tartus in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime back. While the port has been a critical site for Russian vessel refueling, resupplying, and repairing efforts, images show that warships previously docked at the base have not returned since the overthrow of the Syrian government back in December – despite signals from Syria’s new government, headed by onetime al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – that Russia’s military presence in the country might be allowed to continue. (BBC, January 30, 2025; Washington Post , February 6, 2025; Al-Jazeera , February 12, 2025)
… IN FAVOR OF NEW ACCOMMODATIONS IN SUDAN
Moscow, however, has somewhere to go, because Russia has been given the green light from Sudan to establish a naval base on that nation's Red Sea coast. The proposition was initially discussed in 2019 during the rule of former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, and a deal was even signed in November 2020. However, the status of the agreement had been unclear since Sudan’s civil war broke out in 2023. Russian interest in gaining access to this port has intensified in recent weeks, following the fall of Assad in Damascus. Now, Russia will join other countries, such as the U.S., China, and France, in maintaining a naval presence along this strategic trading route. The deal, concluded earlier this month between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Sudanese counterpart, Ali Youssef, will alloq Russia to build a logistics center for its military ships, including nuclear-powered vessels, and station up to 300 military personnel for a period of 25 years. (BBC, February 13, 2025)
SENEGAL MOVES CLOSER TO A FRENCH DEPARTURE
France and Senegal are working to implement the formal withdrawal of French troops from the African nation, with the goal of finalizing this process by the end of 2025. Both countries have established a joint commission to oversee the phased departure of French military forces and the handover of bases, and both have agreed to engage in future defense and security partnerships. Several African states have made similar decisions to expel French troops, as attitudes toward the French government have soured on the continent. (Al Jazeera, February 12, 2025)
DJIBOUTI’S FOREIGN MINISTER TO LEAD AFRICAN UNION
At the recent African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, was elected as the bloc’s new leader, beating out former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Madagascar’s ex-Foreign Minister, Richard Randriamandrato. Youssouf, who has served as Djibouti’s foreign minister since 2005, will take on a four-year term as the head of the AU Commission. His election marks a significant political transition within the AU, as he replaces Moussa Faki of Chad, who has held the post since 2017. Youssouf inherits a range of challenges, including the proliferation of military juntas in West Africa and violent rebellions in Eastern Congo. The AU’s oft-criticized inaction in responding to these conflicts will likely be a key focus of Youssouf’s leadership. (Associated Press, February 15, 2025)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RWANDAN CASUALTIES
As the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues, new satellite imagery suggests that at least 600 military graves have been dug since the start of the fighting for Rwandan soldiers in its capital, Kigali. Some senior sources have indicated that the actual number of Rwandan casualties lies in the thousands, while another source says a number of bodies remain in the DRC. This comes in contrast to the consistent claims from Rwanda that their troops are not engaging with the conflict or the M23 rebel group. However, the evident mass casualties suffered by Rwandan military forces could pressure the nation to reverse their claim in an upcoming crisis summit, which is set to host both Rwandan President Kagame and DRC President Tshisekedi. (The Guardian, February 7, 2025)
AFRICAN LEADERS MEET OVER DRC CRISIS
Fears of a spreading war from the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have sparked an unprecedented meeting of leaders from Eastern and Southern African regional blocs. The rise in casualties, an increasing need for aid, and warnings of sanctions from the U.S. all underscore the urgency for a solution to the conflict, which began in 2022. However, approaches to the crisis – which has pit the DRC government against the rebel M23 group, which is supported by neighboring Rwanda – differ significantly. The Eastern Bloc supports Rwanda's call for dialogue, while the Southern Bloc backs the DRC. Nevertheless, regional nations have found common ground in calls for an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" and the reopening of the DRC’s Goma airport for humanitarian aid. (CNN, February 13, 2025)
IRAN AND SUDAN STRIKE A DEAL
Iran and Sudan have agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation in key sectors, including mining, banking, and livestock production, as part of a broader Iranian strategy to enhance its regional influence in Africa. The announcement follows recent talks between an Iranian delegation, led by Assistant Minister of Economy and Finance Abu Al-Fadil Kodi, and Sudanese officials, including Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim, in Port Sudan. The renewal of ties comes after a seven-year pause during which Sudan aligned more closely with Saudi Arabia, even going so far as to send troops to combat the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. With the recent resumption of relations, Iran has reportedly thrown its support behind the Sudanese army in its ongoing fight against the Rapid Support Forces militia. (Bloomberg, February 13, 2025)
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