SAHEL STATES QUIT THE ICC
Madagascar’s parliament voted overwhelmingly on October 14th to impeach the country’s President, Andry Rajoelina, following weeks of violent, youth-led protests. Thousands of young demonstrators, calling themselves "Gen Z Madagascar," had filled the streets of Madagascar since late September to denounce the government’s failure to provide basic services such as reliable water and electricity. Rajoelina dissolved his government in a last-ditch effort to retain power, but fled abroad as soldiers joined the protests. With his departure, Madagascar’s military assumed control, and on October 16, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, a long-time vocal critic of Rajoelina, was sworn in as the country's transitional president after the High Constitutional Court ratified the takeover.
The reshuffle is far from uncontroversial, however, with the African Union suspending Madagascar, citing an unconstitutional change of power. Moreover, the coup may alter Madagascar’s foreign policy, potentially distancing the island nation from France and deepening its engagement with Russia—mirroring trends across other former French colonies in Africa that have experienced coups in recent years. (Reuters, October 14, 2025; New York Times, October 14, 2025; Deutsche Welle, October 16, 2025)
CONGO TRADES EXPORT BAN FOR COBALT QUOTAS
Effective October 16th, the Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its ban on cobalt exports, replacing it with an annual quota system based on historical export volumes. The DRC, which produces approximately 70 percent of global cobalt output, had suspended exports in February after prices of the mineral fell to a nine-year low. The new quota system seeks to reduce inventories and support prices amid escalating conflict in the country’s east, where illegal mineral exploitation is fueling violence by M23 rebels. The policy shift will reshape global supply dynamics. The quota system could complicate U.S. and European efforts to diversify their critical mineral supply chains, while China, already dominant in cobalt mining and refining, may consolidate its position in the sector still further. (Reuters, September 22, 2025)
RUSSIAN FORCES FILL THE VOID AS JIHADISTS SURGE IN SAHEL
As jihadist activity has surged in the Sahel, European and U.S. troops have steadily withdrawn from countries in the troubled region, among them Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. As a result, local governments have increasingly turned to the Kremlin’s private mercenary army, the Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group), for protection. Local jihadist groups affiliated with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda are taking advantage of gaps in governance and smaller Western security footprints to expand their territorial influence in the region.
But while Russian forces have now filled the vacuum left by France and the United States, the Kremlin’s objective appears to be different. Rather than focusing on protecting civilians, these forces are concerned about resource extraction and securing mineral interests. The shift signals a broader geopolitical realignment in the Sahel – one in which Russian influence is expanding through security contracts tied to resource deals. (Fox News, October 19, 2025)
CAMEROON’S UNREST GROWS
Eight days after Cameroon’s tumultuous presidential election, the National Vote Counting Commission released provisional results showing incumbent president Paul Biya winning 53 percent of the vote over opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who garnered 35 percent. The results were immediately disputed, with Tchiroma, a former minister, alleging widespread vote tampering and declaring himself the victor. Demonstrations have erupted across Cameroon in recent days, resulting in clashes with security forces in several major cities. If the results are validated, the outcome would allow Paul Biya to extend his 42-year rule as Cameroon’s leader. At 92, Biya is already one of the longest-serving leaders in Africa. The disputed outcome risks deepening political instability and further eroding confidence in state institutions, while unrest in Cameroon could ripple outward, threatening security in the already volatile Central African region. (BBC, October 20, 2025; Africa News, October 21, 2025 )
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