Russia Policy Monitor No. 2700

EUROPE: A PROBLEMATIC DEPENDENCE
In Europe, there is now a near-unanimous consensus regarding the threat to the continent posed by Russia, and about the need to continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to withstand Moscow's aggression. But Europe's steadfastness could be undermined by a different factor – a growing dependence on Russian energy. A new analysis by Reuters details that seven European states (France, the Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, Croatia, Portugal, and Hungary) have all significantly increased their imports of Russian energy over the past year.

The data is striking. In the Netherlands, Russian energy dependence surged by some 72%, to 498 million Euro ($580 million), since 2024. In France, it rose by 40%, reaching 2.2 billion Euro ($2.56 billion). These purchases have been described as a "form of self-sabotage." "The Kremlin is quite literally getting funding to continue to deploy their armed forces in Ukraine," says Vaibhav Raghunandan of the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). (Reuters, October 10, 2025)

[EDITORS' NOTE: As alarming as this trend is, the broader trendline remains one of decoupling. According to the same Reuters analysis, the European Union as a whole has reduced its energy dependence on Russia by roughly 90% since 2022. Still, problems persist. For instance, an EU plan to ban Russian liquified natural gas doesn't kick in until 2027 at the earliest – meaning Europe's energy purchases will continue to fund Russia’s war effort for at least another year-and-a-half.]

TROUBLE (FOR MOSCOW) IN THE ARCTIC
In the mounting scramble for the Arctic, the conventional wisdom is that Russia has a considerable advantage over the United States and other countries, thanks to its proximity to the Arctic circle and its investments in recent years in maintaining a viable economic and military presence there. But that could be changing, as Russia's naval fleet ages and other funding priorities – such as the Ukraine war – distract the Kremlin from the region. Over the past three years, Russia has reportedly only commissioned one icebreaker – a marked slowdown as compared to the years before the Ukraine invasion, when one such vessel was commissioned annually on average. Moreover, Russia's existing fleet of icebreakers is aging. "The Russian icebreaker fleet is rapidly becoming obsolete: at least three of the operating icebreakers will work out their term in 2026-2027," the BBC reports.

The slowdown is significant, both as a sign of Russia's economic troubles and as a bellwether of its clout as an Arctic power. "At this rate, by 2030, Russia will be without the necessary amount of them for the development of the Arctic," says the BBC. (BBC, September 22, 2025)

ENEMIES, ENEMIES EVERYWHERE
The Kremlin has opened an investigation into Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the Russian oligarch who once ranked as Russia's richest man. Khodorkovsky, the former CEO of the Yukos oil company, was arrested in 2003 on purported tax evasion charges. He was found guilty in 2005 and sentenced to nine years in prison. Khodorkovsky was pardoned by President Putin in 2013, and has lived in exile since. However, Khodorkovsky’s ongoing support for opposition groups such as the Russian Anti-War Committee has once again made him a target of the Kremlin, which has alleged that he is guilty of "plotting a coup against President Vladimir Putin."

Khodorkovsky, moreover, is not alone. The Kremlin has reportedly opened an investigation into twenty-two other anti-war activists likewise involved with the Anti-War Committee as well. Their number includes several prominent Russian businessmen, politicians, and even onetime chess grandmaster (and current opposition activist) Garry Kasparov. (The Hill, October 14, 2025)