China Reform Monitor: No. 1072

[Editor’s Note: This special CRM reviews responses to China’s November 23 declaration of the a new East China Sea ADIZ obligating all aircraft entering the area to submit flight plans and follow instructions. China’s new ADIZ includes the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku in Japanese) and Ieodo Island, territory claimed by Japan and South Korea (but controlled by South Korea), respectively. Over the last week China’s East Asian neighbors – Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan – have all pushed back against China’s unilateral declaration in different ways and to different degrees. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Japan have responded with joint declarations in opposition and by flying military aircraft through the zone without informing Beijing. The two sides have responded differently regarding civilian flights, however, with the Obama administration suggesting U.S. carriers identify themselves and the Japanese asking their carriers not to do so.]

November 27:

The U.S. and Japan have responded in unified opposition to China’s establishment of the ADIZ. Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera and U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel shared their “strong concern” in a telephone call, Kyodo reports. “We agreed that China’s one-sided action could trigger an unexpected incident and is extremely dangerous. We agreed to send a message to China that its attempt to change the status quo will never be tolerated,” Onodera said. Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga met with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy and agreed the two countries will closely cooperate their response. Kennedy said China’s new ADIZ “undermines security and constitutes an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea and only serves to increase tensions in the region.”

November 28:

During high-level defense strategy talks between Wang Guanzhong, People’s Liberation Army deputy chief of general staff, and Baek Seung-joo, South Korean Vice Defense Minister, Baek demanded China modify its new ADIZ because the area covers the underwater rock of Ieodo, which is under South Korean control. “We will convey our position again that we cannot recognize the ADIZ that China unilaterally declared without advance consultations with our government,” a military official said ahead of the talks. “We will make it clear that it should be modified in a way that does not impede our national interests.” Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said Seoul is considering expanding its air defense zone to include Ieodo, Yonhap reports.

November 29:

In a rare show of cross-party unity Taiwan’s legislature has issued a joint statement urging China to retract the new ADIZ and urging Beijing to exercise self-restraint and work with others to peacefully resolve the dispute. It called on Taiwan’s government to lodge a protest with China and coordinate with Japan, the U.S. and South Korea. President Ma Ying-jeou, by contrast, said that the new zone “does not concern the issue of territorial airspace, nor territorial sovereignty” and that the overlapping area with Taiwan’s own air identification zone “is so small that it does not affect military exercises,” Kyodo reports. A Taipei Times editorial noted that Ma’s response “creates an impression within the international community that Taiwan is aligning itself with Beijing rather than the democracies of Japan, South Korea and the US.”

The Obama administration has advised American commercial airlines to comply with China’s ADIZ demands and notify Beijing in advance of flights through the area. U.S. officials said they had made the decision in part because they worried about an unintended confrontation. Taiwan’s Civil Aeronautics Administration has also been complying, but Japan, by contrast, has asked several of its airlines, that were voluntarily following China’s rules, to stop, the New York Times reports.

November 30:

“Beijing’s unilateral drawing of a new air defense identification zone in the East China Sea is a disastrous setback for the stability, peace and prosperity of East Asia,” according to a South China Morning Post editorial. “The only possible beneficiaries are those in the Chinese military and right-wing nationalists [in Japan],” it said. “The declaration of the zone poses a dangerous challenge to Beijing: is this just a set of rules on paper or will China try to enforce them, by buzzing an intruding aircraft, by forcing it away from the zone, or even, some U.S. analysts fear, by shooting down an aircraft, perhaps by mistake? A real tiger cannot have its bluff called too many times. It is a dangerous game. It sets up the prospect of a bad accident or military clashes.”