Defense Technology Monitor No. 102

TRUST, TRICKERY AND AI
Society is increasingly relying on artificial intelligence (AI) across virtually all sectors, but can it truly be trusted? In recent years, several AI models have been developed with the goal of playing popular games like Diplomacy, StarCraft II, and poker. Impressively, these systems have been able to outperform humans. Alarmingly, however, they were able to do so while demonstrating unexpected deceptive behavior. According to Peter S. Park, a postdoctoral fellow at MIT, the "black box" nature of AI systems represents a real challenge: "[J]ust because your AI has certain behaviors or tendencies in a test environment does not mean that the same lessons will hold if it's released into the wild. There's no easy way to solve this — if you want to learn what the AI will do once it's deployed into the wild, then you just have to deploy it into the wild."

The implications are potentially profound. If AI can't be created without guarantees that deception is eliminated, defense systems employing AI might end up behaving unpredictably. Furthermore, this trait could be weaponized, with the U.S. and its adversaries finding new and innovative ways to exploit AI deception via information warfare and propaganda. (MIT Technology Review, May 10, 2024)

HIGH ENERGY HURDLES TO OVERCOME
While directed energy weapons are becoming more ubiquitous in battle, new real-world testing demonstrates why they represent more of a supplement than a panacea. For instance, the Directed Energy Mobile Short-Range Air Defense (DE M-SHORADS) system, a 50-kilowatt laser mounted on a Stryker vehicle, is facing challenges in its Middle East deployment. According to Assistant Secretary of the Army Doug Bush, "that power level, 50 kilowatts... is proving challenging to incorporate into a vehicle that has to move around constantly. Heat dissipation, the amount of electronics, the wear and tear on a vehicle in a tactical environment versus a fixed site." On a positive note, however, Bush stated that the U.S. has "deployed other lower power levels that are proving successful — 20 kilowatts for example — to some fixed sites." The Army is also experimenting with the use of heavy microwave beams in order to disrupt electronic components in drones and guided missiles. While they would work on a different range of targets, Microwaves would suffer from less environmental problems than lasers and could be cheaper and more effective than laser systems. (Popular Mechanics, May 23, 2024)

THE UNINTENDED CIVILIAN CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTRONIC WARFARE...
War will always have an impact on civilian infrastructure, but increasingly, the effects of modern conflict are spreading to the skies. Electronic warfare is particularly pervasive and problematic because enemy combatants utilize spoofing techniques (involving sending out misleading signals) to make it difficult for adversaries to properly navigate. With wars expanding in the Middle East and Europe, civilian airlines are increasingly receiving false signals about their altitude and navigation. According to Benoit Figuet, co-founder of SkAI Data Services, "the inaccuracy introduced by spoofing into the GPS also affects altitude estimates" and "can trigger false Ground Proximity Warnings, which are critical safety alerts that warn pilots when their aircraft is too close to the ground or an obstacle." Pilots flying near warzones will need to be cognizant of faulty altimeter readings and reduce reliance on GPS navigations systems. (ABC News, May 4, 2024)

...MAY BE SOLVED BY QUANTUM TECH
As numerous governments consider how to handle the evolving threat of GPS spoofing on civilian airliners, the UK may have found the answer – in quantum technology. The British Ministry of Defense, in concert with a number of aerospace companies, is testing a new quantum-centric Position Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system that eliminates dependency on traditional GPS satellite-based navigation systems. Defense firm Infleqtion led the testing of the two quantum technologies in recent trials. According to Infleqtion UK president Timothy Balance, those tests "demonstrate[d] the potential of quantum technology in overcoming navigation system challenges, which is an exciting development for future applications in the aerospace industry and beyond." (Interesting Engineering, May 13, 2024)

RETHINKING WARP SPEED TRAVEL
Scifi television staple Star Trek popularized the concept of using warp drives to travel around the galaxy at rates faster than light speed. These drives were always viewed as fantasy that defied the known laws of physics, but physicists now believe there is a conceivable way to achieve at- or near-lightspeed travel. A 1994 design by Miguel Alcubierre Moya proposed a theoretical warp drive that constricted spacetime in front of a spaceship and enlarged it behind the craft to propel it. However, the idea required the use of "negative energy," which doesn't exist.

In a more recent breakthrough, though, physicists devised a method that utilizes a "positive energy" system which more closely aligns with the laws of physics. This alternate design would create a bubble of super dense mass around the spaceship – although it would have to be roughly twice the mass of Jupiter. Some have theorized that dark matter could be used to generate the necessary weight. But until a solution is found, the technology will remain firmly in the theoretical realm. (Popular Mechanics, May 29, 2024)