TURKEY LOOKS TO IRAN
The softer diplomatic stance towards Iran taken by Turkey’s ruling Islamist Party, the AKP, has of late begun to materialize into tangible cooperation; a development highlighted by a visit to Tehran by Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. During his visit, Davutoglu announced plans by his government to “link China’s [Silk Road] via Mashhad-Tehran-Tabriz to Turkey and Europe.” Elsewhere, Davutoglu insisted that the $30-billion-dollar-a-year target for bilateral trade set by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was “accessible.” “We can go even beyond this level,” Davutoglu added. (Tehran Fars, November 21, 2009)
[Editor’s note: Turkish outreach to Iran runs in direct contravention to the stance taken by its NATO allies, which are uniformly pushing to further isolate and sanction Iran over its rapidly-developing nuclear program. It also comes amidst a deterioration in Turkish-EU relations, with Turkish membership in the European Union increasingly in doubt amid perceptions that Ankara is “looking east.”]
ALL EYES ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH
After a period of dormancy, the longstanding, on-again-off-again dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is again taking center stage. Tensions began to mount earlier this year when Turkey, Azerbaijan’s ally and patron, moved to normalize relations with Armenia and end the 16-year-old closure of the Turko-Armenian border; appearing to drop its previous demand that Yerevan withdraw its troops from the disputed territory before any settlement was reached. This enraged Azerbaijan, which felt betrayed by Turkey and has been turning up the pressure on Armenia ever since. Azeri president Ilham Aliyev stunned observers when he warned in late November that if the current round of negotiations ends without resolution “then our hopes of negotiations will be exhausted and then we are left with no other option. We have the full right to liberate our land by military means.” (Bonn Deutche Welle, November 22 2009; Doha al-Jazeera, November 23, 2009)
SYRIA: A NEW SAFE HAVEN FOR AL-QAEDA?
U.S. officials are growing concerned that eastern Syria is becoming the newest al-Qaeda safe haven – and that the area could “begin to look like northwestern Pakistan.” Having been defeated in and driven from Iraq, the Iraqi branch of the Bin Laden network appears to be growing closer with former Ba’athists from Saddam Hussein’s regime who are operating from safe havens in Syria. The U.S. became aware of al-Qaeda’s growing infrastructure in the east of that country at least as early as October 2008, when U.S. forces launched an unprecedented raid onto Syrian territory killing Abu Ghadiya, al Qaeda’s senior facilitator at the time, and his senior staff. Since then, two senior al-Qaeda leaders in Syria, Abu Khalaf and Sheikh Issa al Masri, are believed to have been operating from Damascus under the protection of Syria’s intelligence services. From there, they have been coordinating a series of deadly bombings in Iraq, severely straining tensions between Baghdad and Damascus. (Long War Journal, November 24, 2009)
ENERGY WARS IN CENTRAL ASIA
Relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been contentious in the nearly two decades since they won independence from the Soviet Union, but the political rivalry between the Central Asian neighbors is now spilling over into the economic realm, with potentially dire consequences. The latest spat began when Uzbekistan announced earlier this year that it would withdraw from the regional electricity grid – a move with profound implications for Tajikistan, which imports electricity through Uzbekistan in the winter and, due to a surplus of hydroelectric power, exports it during the summer and spring. Uzbekistan --which argues the current system allows its neighbors to “steal energy in their own interests” and do it “with impunity” – will effectively cut off an isolated Tajikistan from exporting or importing to the broader region.
With energy shortages approaching and imports now blocked, Tajikistan is looking to retaliate with its only viable weapon: water. The rivers that irrigate Uzbek lands travel first through Tajikistan, and Tajik officials are already talking about ramping up use of their hydropower plants and releasing water from their reservoirs to meet the shortfall in energy supply. Tajik political analysts, meanwhile, have begun calling for Tajikistan’s withdrawal from the regional Coordination Committee on Water which governs “trans-boundary water management.” (Eurasianet.org November 30, 2009)
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