South Asia Security Monitor: No. 245

INDIA REAFFIRMS NUCLEAR DETERRENT
The head of India’s prominent Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), VK Saraswat, has announced that India’s nuclear deterrence capabilities are “at par with whatever adversaries we are looking at.” “In terms of deterrence, India has the capability, which it needs to have… we are totally self-sufficient” and our “capabilities are fully safe and all the infrastructure required is also in place.”

[Editor’s note: The keepers of India’s nuclear stockpile were put on their heels by former DRDO scientist K Santhanam when he admitted in October that India’s nuclear test in 1998 had not met “design expectations.” He went on to say that “there is a wealth of seismic and other data which reveal that the thermonuclear device underperformed.” Santhanam’s claim was swiftly rebuked by the government but, amidst an international push for India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, it has stirred an intense debate within the country about the status of its nuclear arsenal and the potential need for further testing. (Beijing Xinjua, December 15, 2009; Asian Defence, October 2, 2009)

PAKISTAN-IRAN SPAT OVER JUNDALLAH
[Editor’s note: On October 18 five senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers along with dozens of other Iranians were killed in a suicide bombing in southeastern Iran. The Baluch Sunni militant group Jundallah, which has been engaged in a low-intensity war against Shi’ite-majority Iran since 2003 and is believed to operate out of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, claimed responsibility. At the time, Iran pointed the finger of blame at Islamabad and commentary in Iran’s official press called for Iran to “seriously deal with Pakistan once and for all.” Pakistan has insisted it is doing all it can to hunt down Jundallah and denies accusations of complicity in the group’s activities.]

In mid-December the director of the provincial justice department in Iran’s province of Sistan-Baluchistan said Iran had turned over documents to Islamabad that proved links between Pakistan’s intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, and the Jundallah militant group. Tehran is arguing that Jundallah chief Abdolmalek Rigi is operating out of Pakistan; Islamabad denies the charge and insists that Rigi is based in Afghanistan. Tehran based the evidence on confessions from Rigi’s brother, Abdolhamid, who is currently imprisoned in Iran. Meanwhile, a military advisor the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is expanding the net of blame, pointing the finger at the “the U.S., Britain, Pakistan, and other rich states on the southern rims of the Persian Gulf,” insisting terrorist groups like Jundallah “receive lots of money from certain Arab countries” and “are also supported by the intelligence agencies of [those] states.” (Karachi Dawn, December 15, 2009; Beijing Xinhua, December 12, 2009)

NEPAL: CRISIS DEEPENS, MAOISTS BLAME INDIA
The political crisis in Nepal is reaching new heights, with the chief of Nepal’s Maoists, Prachandra, ending a three-day nationwide strike with a promise to impose an “indefinite” nationwide strike beginning Christmas day. Prachandra has been locked in a political struggle with the Maoist’s political opponents in the government since a power-sharing deal which ended the Maoist insurgency began to falter earlier this year. But with the crisis deepening, Prachandra has put New Delhi – which he accuses of backing his political opponents – squarely in the Maoists crosshairs.

Warning followers at a rally of the presence of “foreign agents,” Prachandra called the Nepali government “puppets” in India’s hands. He also took aim at Indian Army Chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor, who reportedly told Nepal’s own army chief during a visit to New Delhi this month that he opposed the integration of the Maoist militias into Nepal’s national army – a principal demand of the Maoists. In Prachandra’s view, “Kapoor’s statement was a naked intervention in Nepal’s internal matters…” Finally, Prachandra’s Maoists laid down a five point agenda for talks with India: scrapping “unequal treaties”, resolving border disputes, correcting the trade deficit, boosting Nepal’s economic growth, and accepting Nepal as an equal state. (Times of India, December 22, 2009)