Eurasia Security Watch: No. 215

BATTLE AGAINST AQAP MAKES FOR ODD COUPLES
[Editor’s note: Yemen has been prominently featured in Middle East headlines in recent months. The trend began when Yemen’s war against Houthist rebels in the north revived early last year, eventually spilling over into Saudi Arabia and compelling that country to join the conflict last fall. Most recently, it was revealed that the Islamist militant who attempted to blow up a U.S. airliner in December had links to Yemen and the al-Qaeda affiliate that operates there, known as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. In response, the U.S. has ramped up military and financial assistance to the government in Sa’na and has deployed intelligence officials and special forces units to assist and train the government in combating al-Qaeda. U.S. officials are now speaking of Yemen as the “new front” in the war on terror.]

One of the lesser-known aspects of Washington’s accelerating campaign against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is a program to cooperate with former intelligence officers from Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. Several former Ba’athist officers and relatives of the late Iraqi dictator were invited to Yemen by President Saleh – a one-time ally of Hussein -- after fleeing to Syria following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 20003. Many would go on to stay in Yemen and become “government experts.” The need to engage these former Ba’athist officials arose out of the corruption of Yemen’s longtime intelligence service, the Political Security Organization (PSO). The PSO is widely perceived as riddled with al-Qaeda sympathizers and pressure from the U.S. after the USS Cole bombing in 2000 and the attacks of 9/11 forced Yemen to set up a rival intelligence agency, the National Security Agency (NSA). It is from there that the former Ba’athist intelligence officers have been recruited (and now work with the U.S.) and the NSA has taken credit for contributing intelligence to a crippling air-strike on AQAP last month. (London Telegraph, January 6, 2009)

HAMAS RAISES STAKES AT EGYPTIAN BORDER…
In a bloody skirmish at the Gaza-Egypt border, Hamas loyalists have clashed with Egyptian troops as tensions mount over Egypt’s construction of an underground steel wall. A 21-year-old Egyptian soldier manning a watchtower was killed and a dozen Gazans injured in a battle that began when hundreds of Hamas supporters marched to the border to protest the wall construction. Egypt’s border with Gaza has been closed since 2006 when Hamas kidnapped an Israeli soldier. But Hamas has constructed a labrynthine network of hundreds of underground tunnels to smuggle arms and commercial goods into the Gaza strip – a network Egypt intends to disrupt with this underground steel wall. Hamas has denounced the construction and has been agitating its followers to protest, but Egypt’s line toward the militant group has hardened. “This used to matter before, and we were sensitive to criticism,” says Egypt’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, “Now this is the way it will be... Egypt warns that is patience has limits. Any other attempt to provoke the Egyptian security will have consequences.” (Associated Press, January 7, 2009)

… AND RESUMES ATTACKS ON ISRAEL ON EVE OF MISSILE SHIELD…
Israel’s first successful test of the long-awaited Iron Dome missile defense system this week was met the following day with a string of mortar attacks from Hamas militants operating in the Gaza strip. At least ten mortar shells were fired, several of which fell inside the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza, which was subsequently closed by Israel. Egypt’s underground security wall and the completion of Iron Dome are expected to severely limit Hamas’ ability to operate, and the attack is seen by some as an indication of a desperate organization. Israel expects to deploy the first anti-rocket battery in May, near the border town of Sderot. “The ability to cause losses and casualties in Israel will be greatly diminished,” announced Uzi Rubin, a former senior Israeli Defence Ministry official. (The Canadian Press, January 7, 2009)

…AMID ACCUSATIONS OF DISLOYALTY
To add insult to injury, Hamas continues to take political fire from its rivals in the Palestinian Authority (PA). During a trip to Saudi Arabia by Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal, purportedly to discuss Hamas’ deep ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s rival, the director-general of the PA Presidency, Tayeb Abdel Rahim, rhetorically asked the militant organization whose side it was on. “Are you with the Palestinian cause or a pawn in the hands of others?” He went on to add that “Hamas has turned the Palestinian cause into a cheap card in the hands of Iran.” (Jerusalem Post, January 7, 2009)

KAZAKH-CHINA PIPELINE ONLINE
In December Chinese President Hu Jintao and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev celebrated the completion of the first section of a $6.7 billion gas pipeline which will bring natural gas from the Kazakh-Uzbek border to Khorgos (Huocheng), on the Chinese side of the China-Kazakh border. A second pipeline route to China, expected to carry 10 bcm of gas annually, will be completed this spring. Chinese investments in Kazakhstan, meanwhile, have soared, as has Kazakhstan’s debt to Beijing as China has snapped up large stakes in Kazakh oil and gas companies, including a blockbuster $10 billion investment in Kazakhstan’s state-controlled oil company and the Development Bank of Kazakhstan. However, not everyone in the region is thrilled by the growing energy bonds between Kazakhstan and China. Russia has been the biggest loser, since the growing proximity between Beijing and Astana puts its plans to rehabilitate existing Central Asian pipelines and retain its monopoly position over Central Asian and Caspian energy in peril. (Hong Kong Asia Times, January 8, 2010)