NEUTRALIZING THE NEXT MONTAZERI
[Editor’s Note: The death of the Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri in late December came as both a blessing and a curse to the Iranian regime. Montazeri, the most senior Shi’a spiritual leader in Iran, had long been a vocal opponent of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In the aftermath of the June 2009 presidential elections, he had also emerged as a key power center and source of legitimacy for Iran’s “Green Movement,” publicly condemning the regime’s domestic conduct and calling for a fundamental overhaul in the relationship between the Iranian government and its people. His passing touched off massive anti-regime protests, with opposition elements using him as a rallying symbol to protest regime oppression. The Iranian regime, therefore, is now moving quickly to preemptively sideline possible successors.]
A key religious body in Iran’s holy city of Qom has declared the edicts of the Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sanei null and void. The Qom Theological Lecturers Association, an influential group of clerics closely aligned with the Iranian regime, ruled on January 2nd that Sanei’s religious rulings were no longer binding. That move has reportedly touched off a furious struggle within Iran’s clerical establishment, with two rival organizations – the Association of the Lecturers and Scholars of Qom Theological Seminary and the Association of Combatant Clerics – questioning the validity of the ruling. (Christian Science Monitor, January 6, 2010)
A COLD SHOULDER FOR KERRY
The Obama administration’s latest effort to reach out to the Iranian regime has been roundly rebuffed. Iran’s parliament, or majles, has rejected an official request from the Foreign Relations Committee of the U.S. Senate to allow its Chairman, Sen. John Kerry, to visit the Islamic Republic. Kerry had filed an request with the Iranian government to visit Tehran as part of efforts by the White House and its allies in Congress to inject new life into the largely-moribund diplomatic dialogue over Iran’s nuclear program. But Iranian parliamentarians “voiced opposition to the request after studying the issue," a top legislator has explained. (Tehran Fars, January 3, 2010)
THE PERILS OF OUTSTANDING SCHOLARSHIP IN IRAN
Operating from the principle that revolutions require bright young minds, the Islamic Republic has launched a crackdown on top students in schools throughout the country. Among the measures reportedly being implemented by Iranian authorities are the creation of an intelligence ministry “black list” of outstanding pupils and the denial of education opportunities for those star students. Elements of Iran’s basij domestic militia are also reported to have attacked students at various learning institutions in Iran. And while the practice predates the emergence of the “Green Movement,” observers say that regime repression has expanded dramatically in the aftermath of this summer’s contested presidential election. (Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2009)
A SHIFT TOWARD TARGETED SANCTIONS
While on the campaign trail, then-candidate Obama spoke favorably about measures that would exploit Iran’s deep dependence on foreign refined petroleum. More recently, officials in his administration emphasized that if “engagement” with Iran did not work the Islamic Republic would face “crippling” sanctions – chief among them measures designed to limit its ability to import gasoline from abroad. But now that the Administration’s year-end deadline for diplomatic progress has passed, Administration officials appear to be rethinking the severity of the punishment they plan to impose upon the Iranian regime. "We have never been attracted to the idea of trying to get the whole world to cordon off their economy," one senior U.S. official has said. The key concern now appears to be the likely effect on the Iranian people – and their perceptions of foreign pressure. "We have to be deft at this, because it matters how the Iranian people interpret their isolation -- whether they fault the regime or are fooled into thinking we are to blame." (Washington Post, December 30, 2009)
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