Eurasia Security Watch: No. 218

YEMEN INCHES TOWARDS PEACE
A ceasefire on February 12th ended six months of intense fighting between the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels in the country’s north. However, the peace remains tenuous: civilian and military prisoners held by the rebels remain captive, rebel weapons have not been turned in, and the Houthis have refused to allow the Yemeni military to deploy throughout much of their Saada province stronghold. The United Nations estimates that roughly 255,000 Yemenis remain displaced by the fighting, which first began in 2004. On a positive note, the Houthist rebels have halted cross-border operations against Saudi Arabia, which drew Riyadh into the battle last November. Two Saudi prisoners have also been released, as have the remains of three Saudi soldiers. (Agence France Presse, March 3, 2010)

WITH AN EYE ON IRAN, ISRAEL UNVEILS NEW DRONE
The country that first made widespread use of the unmanned aerial drone in 1982 has inducted a new fleet of the advanced pilot-less aircraft. In development for over a decade, the Heron TP, described by Israeli Brig. Gen. Amikam Norkin as a “technological and operational breakthrough,” is massive; its 86-foot wingspan equivalent to that of a Boeing 737. The Heron TP can fly for 20 consecutive hours at altitudes of up to 40,000 feet. Israeli defense officials believe the Heron TP’s unique capabilities could be useful in a potential conflict with Iran: “It could provide surveillance, jam enemy communications and connect ground control and manned air force planes.” (Associated Press February 21, 2010)

U.S. REAFFIRMS CENTRAL ASIA TIES
On a whirlwind tour through the five countries of Central Asia, Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, has warned that al-Qaeda plans to use the region to “train international terrorists.” Holbrooke used the trip through the former Soviet republics to discuss U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan – which shares a border, as well as regional electricity and transportation networks – with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. A critical supply route to U.S. forces in Afghanistan runs through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from Russia. Meanwhile, some four million Afghans get their electricity from Uzbekistan while Tajikistan could soon supply electricity to the war torn country as well. In Tashkent, Holbrooke met with Uzbek president Islam Karimov to reinforce the considerable thaw in U.S.-Uzbek relations begun last year. During his visit, Holbrooke ruled out the possibility of establishing a military base there. America operated a base in Uzbekistan until it was evicted in 2005 during a diplomatic spat over human riots violations during a crackdown in Andjian. The U.S. still operates a base in neighboring Kyrgyzstan for transporting, refueling and supply. (Washington Post, February 21, 2010)

AKP STEPS UP BATTLE AGAINST MILITARY IN TURKEY
The perennially fraught relationship between the ruling Islamist party in Turkey and the country’s secular military is reaching a crisis point. On February 22nd, the Turkish government, led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), made over 40 arrests of current and retired Turkish officers, including several generals, admirals and colonels and the former heads of the country’s air force and navy. The government charged them with attempting to carry out a coup in 2003 (there have been four military coups in Turkey since 1960) by staging several attacks within the country to justify a military emergency – now referred to as the “Sledgehammer Plan.” A second wave of arrests on February 26th netted 18 more officers.

The move is part of a larger continuum. Since 2003 the AKP, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has waged an enduring legal campaign against the “deep state” – an alleged cabal of secularists in the military and courts who despise the AKP’s Islamist roots. In 2007 the government brought legal proceedings against 200 people linked to this alleged group, also called the Ergenekon. Turks split fairly evenly between relief and outrage at the government’s campaign, but the military has proven powerless to stop it. Retired general Haldun Solmazturk says “Now the army is completely pacified, eliminated as a power from the political scene. Now the military is touchable.” (Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2010; New York Times, March 1, 2010)